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FINAL+9NYY
WSH

WSH

53-80

2
11
NYY

NYY

73-60

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
35,501 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

WSH 2 · NYY 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000010012
NYY1091000011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Washington Nationals, 11–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger

LF

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH53-80
2
11
NYY73-60
WSH53-80·NYY73-60
WSH

WSH

53-80

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000011
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000000
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-44000000
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
1-33111110
D. MillasD. Millas★C
0-11000000
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
0-00000000
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000002
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33110000
SPRINT29.496
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
0-11000001
J. BellJ. BellDH
1-11010000
SPRINT25.18
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell IIICF
0-11000000
Team6-3232262126
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
2.1887144
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.2433232
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0100110
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000010
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0000010
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0000020
Team8.01311104126
NYY

NYY

73-60

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-55111101
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
3-55231101
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44222101
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
3-44131110
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-22100032
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
2-55122002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-55000002
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-33211102
SPRINT25.18
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-44113101
SPRINT2622
Team13-37371113116412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
7.0411260
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
2.0211001
Team9.0622261

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    76 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.7 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      28%·89.7 mph·44% whiff
    • KC
      22%·85.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      5%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.1 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    64 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.1 mph·10% whiff
    • KC
      31%·72.5 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      20%·82.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      42%·90.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      25%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      21%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      63%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      31%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      33%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    94 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      23%·93.5 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      22%·93.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      19%·82.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      15%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    27 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      41%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·79.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      15%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

13

2

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Aug 25WSHWSH5@NYYNYY10
Aug 26WSHWSH1@NYYNYY5
Aug 27WSHWSH2@NYYNYY11today

Season series

NYY win series 3-0

Aug 25WSHWSH5@NYYNYY10
Aug 26WSHWSH1@NYYNYY5
Aug 27WSHWSH2@NYYNYY11today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 7pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
C. Bellinger

C. Bellinger

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat WSH 11-2. NYY outscored the other side 9-0 in the 3rd inning.

Win probability

NYY vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+6pp→ 85% WP

Grisham · homered to right (334 feet).

NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 93% WP

Judge · homered to center (424 feet), Rice scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000010012
NYY10910000—11

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · NYY won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Grisham 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
9

Inn 3

McMahon 3

0
1

Inn 4

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Chaparro 1

WSH
NYY

Play-by-play · 608 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  2. T9

    Hassell III grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  8. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  9. T9

    Hassell III hit for Rutledge

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  10. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  11. T9

    Chaparro homered to left (411 feet).

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  15. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Andres Chaparro

    ·

    WSH 2·NYY 11

  16. T9

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  17. T9

    Crews flied out to center.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  22. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Dylan Crews

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  23. T9

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  24. T9

    García Jr. grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  28. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    WSH 1·NYY 11

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    WSH 1·NYY 11

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

2

Runs

11

6

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

10

TB

32

1

HR

6

2

BB

4

6

K

12

10

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    65.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 94
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    92
    7(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 93
    205
    16(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 92
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 92
    47
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 92
    205
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs