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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

53-75

5
4
PHI

PHI

74-54

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
44,757 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 5 · PHI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH3000000025
PHI0100021004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    68.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    68.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    204
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    97
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    115
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    41
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 93
    206
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Bryson Stott

Bryson Stott

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH53-75
5
4
PHI74-54
WSH53-75·PHI74-54
WSH

WSH

53-75

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-33020011
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-11100020
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-44113101
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000002
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
2-44120000
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-22121010
SPRINT29.395
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000002
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-22000002
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro1B
0-11000000
J. YoungJ. YoungCF
0-22000001
Team8-3131584149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
6.0733241
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
0.2111021
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
0.1000010
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
2.0000030
Team9.08442102
PHI

PHI

74-54

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-55001003
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000021
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-33111100
SPRINT28.381
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44010001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-44000002
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
3-44230000
SPRINT27.148
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33000000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
2-44122100
SPRINT28.688
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-11000001
Team8-35354842210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
5.0333351
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100100
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
1.0100000
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100010
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0221030
Team9.0854491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    95 pitches·26% CSW
    • KC
      43%·86.2 mph·41% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.8 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      21%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·90.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      1%·95.6 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      36%·81.1 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      32%·78.1 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      23%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • KC
      29%·74.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      29%·82.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      24%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.2 mph·100% whiff

PHI

  • T. Walker
    79 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      37%·86.7 mph·31% whiff
    • FS
      30%·86.4 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·73.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      68%·98.4 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      18%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·101.1 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Banks
    21 pitches·10% CSW
    • SL
      33%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      92%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      70%·82.9 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4today
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3

Season series

PHI leads series 6-5

Mar 27PHIPHI7@WSHWSH3
Mar 29PHIPHI11@WSHWSH6
Mar 30PHIPHI1@WSHWSH5
Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 14PHIPHI2@WSHWSH3
Aug 15PHIPHI6@WSHWSH2
Aug 16PHIPHI0@WSHWSH2
Aug 17PHIPHI11@WSHWSH9
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4today
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 6th Inning

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
B. Stott

B. Stott

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

WSH beat PHI 5-4. Stott's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+23pp→ 62% WP

Adams · homered to center (401 feet), Abrams scored and Bell scored.

PHIBottom 6th Inning · 3-3
+32pp→ 65% WP

Stott · homered to right center (379 feet), Castellanos scored.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+30pp→ 47% WP

Lile · singled to left, Crews scored, Lile to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH3000000025
PHI0100021004

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · PHI won 3

3
0

Inn 1

Adams 3

0
1

Inn 2

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Stott 2

0
1

Inn 7

Realmuto 1

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Lile 1

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 562 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  3. B9

    Schwarber lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

    −8pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  5. B9

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  6. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  7. B9

    Turner struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

    −10pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  12. B9

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Trea Turner

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  13. B9

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  14. B9

    Stott popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

    −10pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  19. B9

    P.J. Poulin pitches to Bryson Stott

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  22. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  23. T9

    Young struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

    +0.9pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·PHI 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

4

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

13

TB

15

1

HR

2

4

BB

2

9

K

10

11

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175