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FINAL+4MIN
MIN

MIN

63-80

5
1
KC

KC

73-70

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
26,505 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · KC 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1002011005
KC0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesKC wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN63-80
5
1
KC73-70
MIN63-80·KC73-70
MIN

MIN

63-80

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-22111101
SPRINT29.597
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-33010010
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33111012
SPRINT2622
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44112102
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.251
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-33100001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010001
J. PeredaJ. Pereda★C
1-44010001
J. OutmanJ. OutmanCF
0-22000002
Team9-33335942212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
5.1411160
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.2000100
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.2200110
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0100100
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
0.1000100
Team9.0711570
KC

KC

73-70

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
2-55020000
SPRINT2744
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.765
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000000
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.838
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT2872
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000011
L. MaileL. Maile★C
1-33010002
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
0-11000000
Team7-3131171057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
5.1744052
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.2100000
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
0.2111220
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.1000010
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0000020
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
1.0000020
Team9.09552122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • B. Ober
    85 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      28%·89.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.6 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      26%·82.8 mph·21% whiff
    • ST
      18%·77.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      1%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Topa
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      32%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      29%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      21%·82.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.4 mph·— whiff

KC

  • M. Lorenzen
    82 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      32%·82.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·92.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      17%·82.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      9%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      73%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Avila
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.2 mph·— whiff
  • S. Long
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      25%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 5-2

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1today

Season series

KC wins series 7-6

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 4th Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 R · 0.833 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H

How it ended

MIN beat KC 5-1. Clemens's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+20pp→ 77% WP

Clemens · homered to center (451 feet), Wallner scored.

MINTop 7th Inning · 4-1
+8pp→ 90% WP

Julien · hit by pitch.

MINBottom 8th Inning · 5-1
+8pp→ 92% WP

Pasquantino · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1002011005
KC0000010001

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · KC won 0

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Clemens 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Yastrzemski 1

Pasquantino 1

1
0

Inn 7

Wallner 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIN
KC

Play-by-play · 590 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIN 5·KC 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  3. B9

    Yastrzemski flied out to center.

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  7. B9

    Genesis Cabrera pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  9. B9

    Jensen walked.

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

    +3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  15. B9

    Isbel to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  16. B9

    Isbel to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  19. B9

    Genesis Cabrera pitches to Carter Jensen

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  20. B9

    Cabrera relieved Topa

    ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  21. B9

    Jensen hit for Maile

    ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  22. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  23. B9

    Isbel grounded into fielder's choice to first, Caglianone out at second, Massey to third.

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

    −2pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  29. B9

    Justin Topa pitches to Kyle Isbel

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

  30. B9

    · ·

    MIN 5·KC 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

1

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

16

TB

10

2

HR

0

2

BB

5

12

K

7

13

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.4%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    65.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.5%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.0%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    204
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    92
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    94
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 95
    202
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    94
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    201
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs