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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1NYY
TOR

TOR

82-61

3
4
NYY

NYY

80-63

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
43,266 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 3 · NYY 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0210000003
NYY301000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 5, 25sim 98
    147
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    21
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    141
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    104
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 94
    196
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Toronto Blue Jays, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Addison Barger

Addison Barger

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR82-61
3
4
NYY80-63
TOR82-61·NYY80-63
TOR

TOR

82-61

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT25.920
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000001
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT26.123
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33100010
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.354
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-44000000
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-33011001
SPRINT27.560
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-33021001
SPRINT27.148
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
0-44000001
A. BargerA. BargerRF
1-11010000
D. VarshoD. VarshoCF
0-11000000
Team8-3333383025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
4.1344481
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.2000020
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000030
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000100
Team8.03445131
NYY

NYY

80-63

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000012
SPRINT26.735
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-11200031
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
2-44121000
SPRINT27.560
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44113100
SPRINT26.941
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000002
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-22000010
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000002
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000003
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-33000003
Team3-27274341513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
7.0633140
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0100110
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0100000
Team9.0833250

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    93 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.8 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      38%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.2 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Borucki
    15 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      40%·87.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    13 pitches·62% CSW
    • CU
      46%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·87.3 mph·100% whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    100 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      21%·93.9 mph·7% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·74.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      4%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      68%·84.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      32%·94.5 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      33%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·94.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

3

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

NYY win series 4-2

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4today

Season series

TOR wins series 8-5

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TORTOR
A. Barger

A. Barger

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TOR 4-3.

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+17pp→ 87% WP

Rice · homered to right center (380 feet), Judge scored and Bellinger scored.

TORTop 3rd Inning · 3-3
+16pp→ 55% WP

Guerrero Jr. · doubled to left, Springer scored, Schneider to third.

NYYTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+16pp→ 100% WP

Straw · grounded out to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0210000003
NYY30100000—4

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NYY won 1

0
3

Inn 1

Rice 3

2
0

Inn 2

Kiner-Falefa 1

1
1

Inn 3

Jr. 1

Bellinger 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 529 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  2. T9

    Straw grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

    +16pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  8. T9

    Lukes caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  9. T9

    Lukes caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  11. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Myles Straw

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  12. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  13. T9

    Lukes singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

    −7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  19. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Nathan Lukes

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  20. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  21. T9

    Varsho flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

    +7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  23. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Daulton Varsho

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  24. T9

    Bednar relieved Williams

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  25. T9

    Varsho hit for Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  26. T9

    Goldschmidt at first base.

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  29. B8

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

  30. B8

    Stanton grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TOR 3·NYY 4

    −3pp

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

4

8

Hits

3

0

Errors

2

11

TB

7

0

HR

1

2

BB

5

5

K

13

17

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    52.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.