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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BOS
NYY

NYY

83-66

4
6
BOS

BOS

82-68

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
35,437 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

NYY 4 · BOS 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0002101004
BOS600000006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    147
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    105
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 94
    143
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    145
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 93
    196
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 14·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off New York Yankees, 6–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Nathaniel Lowe

Nathaniel Lowe

DH

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY83-66
4
6
BOS82-68
NYY83-66·BOS82-68
NYY

NYY

83-66

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-44000003
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44121102
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000002
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44110003
SPRINT23.81
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
1-33112101
SPRINT28.278
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT24.74
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-44000001
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-44111103
SPRINT28.278
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-33010000
T. GrishamT. GrishamCF
0-11000001
Team7-34344743116
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.01066121
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000020
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0100000
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
1.0100010
Team8.01266151
BOS

BOS

82-68

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-44110000
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44111001
SPRINT25.818
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT27.969
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
2-33121010
SPRINT25.411
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-44121000
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-33021000
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-44011001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44111101
SPRINT257
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000001
Team12-34346126115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.05331122
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0111001
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0100030
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.07441163

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • W. Warren
    89 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.3 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      41%·88.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      35%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.8 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      20%·73.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·82.9 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    99 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      30%·97.8 mph·35% whiff
    • FC
      27%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·98.1 mph·36% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.3 mph·100% whiff
    • UN
      1%·21.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      39%·96.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      39%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Matz
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      19%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      36%·99.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      36%·100.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

4

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 4-2

Jun 13NYYNYY1@BOSBOS2
Jun 14NYYNYY3@BOSBOS4
Jun 15NYYNYY0@BOSBOS2
Sep 12NYYNYY4@BOSBOS1
Sep 13NYYNYY5@BOSBOS3
Sep 14NYYNYY4@BOSBOS6today

Season series

BOS wins series 9-4

Jun 6BOSBOS6@NYYNYY9
Jun 7BOSBOS10@NYYNYY7
Jun 8BOSBOS11@NYYNYY7
Jun 13NYYNYY1@BOSBOS2
Jun 14NYYNYY3@BOSBOS4
Jun 15NYYNYY0@BOSBOS2
Aug 21BOSBOS6@NYYNYY3
Aug 22BOSBOS1@NYYNYY0
Aug 23BOSBOS12@NYYNYY1
Aug 24BOSBOS2@NYYNYY7
Sep 12NYYNYY4@BOSBOS1
Sep 13NYYNYY5@BOSBOS3
Sep 14NYYNYY4@BOSBOS6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 8th Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 6 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
N. Lowe

N. Lowe

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher12-K game

6.0 IP · 12 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat NYY 6-4.

Win probability

BOS vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 77% WP

Duran · tripled to left.

NYYTop 7th Inning · 4-6
+6pp→ 12% WP

Caballero · homered to left (423 feet).

NYYTop 8th Inning · 4-6
+10pp→ 20% WP

Judge · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0002101004
BOS60000000—6

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · BOS won 1

0
6

Inn 1

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Rosario 2

1
0

Inn 5

Judge 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Caballero 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
BOS

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  2. T9

    Caballero struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

    +0.7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  6. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jose Caballero

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  7. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  8. T9

    Chisholm Jr. grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

    +2pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  13. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  14. T9

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  15. T9

    Goldschmidt grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

    +3pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  20. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  21. T9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  22. T9

    Eaton in right field.

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  25. B8

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  26. B8

    Rafaela grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 4·BOS 6

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

4

Runs

6

7

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

17

TB

18

3

HR

1

1

BB

1

16

K

5

8

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

BOS vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    53.2%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.4%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.