• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+6TOR
TOR

TOR

82-59

7
1
NYY

NYY

78-63

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
46,055 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 7 · NYY 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR3100100117
NYY0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into New York Yankees and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR82-59
7
1
NYY78-63
TOR82-59·NYY78-63
TOR

TOR

82-59

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44100002
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000011
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
4-55341100
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
3-33132010
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-55121001
SPRINT26.838
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-33100021
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-44012001
SPRINT27.148
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.354
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000001
Team11-36367117147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
8.0411151
B. FisherB. FisherRP
1.0000100
Team9.0411251
NYY

NYY

78-63

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000000
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-44121101
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-33000002
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-33000001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22000011
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33000000
Team4-3030141125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
1.2544220
R. YarbroughR. YarbroughRP
5.1311031
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0111120
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0211100
Team9.01177471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    105 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.2 mph·6% whiff
    • FS
      30%·84.3 mph·47% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      55%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·80.1 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • R. Yarbrough
    73 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      26%·83.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      26%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·72.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      19%·77.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      8%·88.7 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Schlittler
    66 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      48%·98.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      26%·93.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      33%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      28%·73.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      38%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.4 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

4

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 4-2

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1today
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Season series

TOR leads series 8-3

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1today
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

R. Yarbrough

R. Yarbrough

RP

Top reliever

5.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

TOR beat NYY 7-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 56% WP

Bichette · doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.

TORTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+15pp→ 74% WP

Lukes · singled to right, Bichette scored and Varsho scored, Kirk to second.

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 4-1
+7pp→ 24% WP

Stanton · homered to left center (418 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR3100100117
NYY0100000001

Period scoring

TOR won 4 · NYY won 0

3
0

Inn 1

Lukes 2

1
1

Inn 2

Bichette 1

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Clement 1

1
0

Inn 9

Varsho 1

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  3. B9

    Stanton grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Judge out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  7. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  9. B9

    Bellinger popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  12. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Cody Bellinger

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  13. B9

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  14. B9

    Judge walked.

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Braydon Fisher pitches to Aaron Judge

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Fisher relieved Gausman

    ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  23. B9

    Lukes in right field.

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  24. B9

    Straw in left field.

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  27. T9

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  28. T9

    Kirk grounded out to third.

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 7·NYY 1

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

7

Runs

1

11

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

17

TB

7

1

HR

1

4

BB

2

7

K

5

11

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.2%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 98
    143
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    27
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    104
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 95
    21
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    105
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 94
    145
    19(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs