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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYY
TOR

TOR

82-60

1
3
NYY

NYY

79-63

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
45,123 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

TOR 1 · NYY 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0001000001
NYY020001003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    143
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 94
    21
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 93
    21
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    141
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 93
    147
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 91
    124
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesNYY win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Toronto Blue Jays, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Jasson Dominguez

Jasson Dominguez

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR82-60
1
3
NYY79-63
TOR82-60·NYY79-63
TOR

TOR

82-60

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-33000010
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-33000010
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000010
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.148
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.560
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000000
A. KirkA. KirkC
0-11000001
Team5-3131151055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
5.0320330
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
0.1211100
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.1000030
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.1000120
Team8.0531580
NYY

NYY

79-63

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000003
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-11100030
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
1-22111010
SPRINT26.838
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44010001
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-11002000
SPRINT25.18
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22000011
J. CaballeroJ. CaballeroSS
0-11000000
Team5-2727353058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilL. Gil★SP
6.0311410
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.2100000
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.0100110
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.1000030
Team9.0511550

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • C. Bassitt
    80 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      46%·91.6 mph·35% whiff
    • CU
      14%·71.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·72.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·91.7 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      55%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      32%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      9%·90.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    20 pitches·55% CSW
    • KC
      40%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      30%·93.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • L. Varland
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      67%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      22%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.8 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • L. Gil
    90 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.4 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      28%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      71%·81.5 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Bednar
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      52%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      29%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      75%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.3 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

1

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 4-2

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3today
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Season series

TOR leads series 8-4

Apr 25TORTOR4@NYYNYY2
Apr 26TORTOR0@NYYNYY0
Apr 27TORTOR2@NYYNYY11
Apr 27TORTOR1@NYYNYY5
Jun 30NYYNYY4@TORTOR5
Jul 1NYYNYY5@TORTOR12
Jul 2NYYNYY9@TORTOR11
Jul 3NYYNYY5@TORTOR8
Jul 21NYYNYY1@TORTOR4
Jul 22NYYNYY5@TORTOR4
Jul 23NYYNYY4@TORTOR8
Sep 5TORTOR7@NYYNYY1
Sep 6TORTOR1@NYYNYY3today
Sep 7TORTOR3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 6th Inning

TORTOR
V. Guerrero Jr.

V. Guerrero Jr.

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

NYYNYY
J. Dominguez

J. Dominguez

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

L. Gil

L. Gil

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

NYY beat TOR 3-1.

Win probability

NYY vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 79% WP

Dom · ínguez singled to center, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.

TORTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 27% WP

Guerrero Jr. · flied out to center.

NYYBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+7pp→ 80% WP

Chisholm Jr. · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0001000001
NYY02000100—3

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NYY won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Dom 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Kiner-Falefa 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
NYY

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  2. T9

    Kirk struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

    +0.8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  8. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  9. T9

    Kirk hit for Heineman

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  10. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  11. T9

    Giménez fouled out to third.

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  15. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Andres Gimenez

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  16. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  17. T9

    Kiner-Falefa struck out looking.

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

    +4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  24. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  27. B8

    · ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  28. B8

    Volpe grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

    −0.7pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

  30. B8

    Caballero stole second.

    ·

    TOR 1·NYY 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

3

5

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

8

TB

6

0

HR

0

5

BB

5

5

K

8

16

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jose CaballeroNYY · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.0± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.7%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.5%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.