• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1TOR
MIN

MIN

60-73

8
9
TOR

TOR

78-56

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
42,361 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

MIN 8 · TOR 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1023200008
TOR012201039

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    1115
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 96
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 92
    97
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 91
    205
    16(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 91
    204
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 90
    264
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Minnesota Twins, 9–8. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Ty France

Ty France

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN60-73
8
9
TOR78-56
MIN60-73·TOR78-56
MIN

MIN

60-73

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
2-55322202
SPRINT29.597
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-55011000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-55010001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-55121102
SPRINT28.688
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-55111101
SPRINT26.428
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44110001
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44011001
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-33120010
SPRINT27.867
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
1-33111012
SPRINT26.225
Team12-393981274210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. Woods RichardsonS. Woods Richardson★SP
3.2555223
T. HatchT. HatchRP
1.1111110
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
1.0200020
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0100030
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
0.1222001
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
0.2111110
Team8.01299494
TOR

TOR

78-56

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44220011
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-55012002
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000012
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-55022000
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000001
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
2-33322211
SPRINT26.838
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-33010001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-22000011
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-33222100
SPRINT27.560
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
T. FranceT. France1B
1-11111100
SPRINT24.74
A. KirkA. KirkC
1-11110000
Team12-36369129449
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
4.21086044
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.1100020
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.1000020
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.2000210
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100010
Team9.012862104

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • S. Woods Richardson
    69 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.6 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·78.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.1 mph·29% whiff
  • T. Hatch
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      23%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      19%·90.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      4%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    17 pitches·53% CSW
    • CU
      53%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      12%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·88.5 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·83.6 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·78.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      27%·84.8 mph·0% whiff

TOR

  • E. Lauer
    98 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.1 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      12%·74.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      35%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·86.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      15%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FS
      43%·90.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      50%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·88.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

12

8

Runs

9

0

Errors

2

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 25MINMIN4@TORTOR10
Aug 26MINMIN7@TORTOR5
Aug 27MINMIN8@TORTOR9today

Season series

TOR wins series 4-2

Jun 7TORTOR6@MINMIN4
Jun 7TORTOR5@MINMIN4
Jun 8TORTOR3@MINMIN6
Aug 25MINMIN4@TORTOR10
Aug 26MINMIN7@TORTOR5
Aug 27MINMIN8@TORTOR9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 8th Inning

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

S. Woods Richardson

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TORTOR
T. France

T. France

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 10 H

How it ended

TOR beat MIN 9-8. Barger's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Win probability

TOR vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 4th Inning · 5-3
+25pp→ 62% WP

Julien · doubled to center, Julien scored on throwing error by catcher Heineman and Martin scored on error.

TORBottom 6th Inning · 8-6
+21pp→ 45% WP

Gim · énez doubled to right, Schneider scored, Lukes to third.

TORBottom 8th Inning · 8-9
+44pp→ 89% WP

Barger · doubled to right, Springer scored and Kirk scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1023200008
TOR01220103—9

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · TOR won 3

1
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Schneider 1

2
2

Inn 3

Buxton 1

Bichette 2

3
2

Inn 4

Julien 2

Schneider 1

2
0

Inn 5

Lee 1

0
1

Inn 6

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Barger 2

0

Inn 9

MIN
TOR

Play-by-play · 625 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  2. T9

    Lee grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

    +10pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  7. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  8. T9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  9. T9

    Keaschall doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

    −7pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  11. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  12. T9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  13. T9

    Wallner struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

    +6pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  17. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Matt Wallner

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  18. T9

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  19. T9

    Jeffers lined out to right.

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

    +4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  26. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  27. T9

    Hoffman relieved Domínguez

    ·

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  28. T9

    Kirk catching.

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  29. T9

    Clement at second base.

    MIN 8·TOR 9

  30. T9

    Straw in right field.

    MIN 8·TOR 9

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

8

Runs

9

12

Hits

12

0

Errors

2

26

TB

26

4

HR

4

2

BB

4

10

K

9

7

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    66.1%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    67.2%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.1%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.