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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6TOR
MIN

MIN

59-72

4
10
TOR

TOR

77-55

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
41,845 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

MIN 4 · TOR 10 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN0001030004
TOR4101040010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays held off Minnesota Twins, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Wallner

Matt Wallner

RF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk

C

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN59-72
4
10
TOR77-55
MIN59-72·TOR77-55
MIN

MIN

59-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-33100011
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44001000
SPRINT26.428
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
2-44223201
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-44000001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000000
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-44000001
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-33010001
Team5-3232454236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
5.0766172
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0344200
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
2.0000200
Team8.0101010572
TOR

TOR

77-55

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
2-44121011
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
2-55222001
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
1-44012002
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-33111010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33001002
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-22212120
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33110000
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-44000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
2-33321110
SPRINT27.560
Team10-3131101010257
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
6.0444152
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
2.0100110
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000100
Team9.0544362

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.7 mph·9% whiff
    • FS
      20%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      16%·80.1 mph·27% whiff
    • KC
      6%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    37 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      54%·81.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      38%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·94.4 mph·— whiff

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    97 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.9 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.5 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.8 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      53%·89.8 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      44%·77.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Nance
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      54%·89.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      23%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

4

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 25MINMIN4@TORTOR10today
Aug 26MINMIN7@TORTOR5
Aug 27MINMIN8@TORTOR9

Season series

TOR leads series 3-1

Jun 7TORTOR6@MINMIN4
Jun 7TORTOR5@MINMIN4
Jun 8TORTOR3@MINMIN6
Aug 25MINMIN4@TORTOR10today
Aug 26MINMIN7@TORTOR5
Aug 27MINMIN8@TORTOR9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MINMIN
M. Wallner

M. Wallner

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TORTOR
A. Kirk

A. Kirk

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat MIN 10-4.

Win probability

TOR vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 73% WP

Lukes · doubled to right, Springer to third.

TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-4
+12pp→ 88% WP

Kirk · homered to right center (389 feet), Bichette scored.

MINTop 6th Inning · 4-6
+8pp→ 13% WP

Wallner · homered to right (432 feet), Larnach scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN0001030004
TOR41010400—10

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · TOR won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Kirk 2

0
1

Inn 2

Gim 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Wallner 1

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 5

3
4

Inn 6

Wallner 2

Lukes 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIN
TOR

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  2. T9

    Julien grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  4. T9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Edouard Julien

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  5. T9

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  6. T9

    Lewis popped out to second.

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  9. T9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Royce Lewis

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  10. T9

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  11. T9

    Clemens walked.

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  16. T9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  17. T9

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  18. T9

    Jeffers flied out to right.

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  25. T9

    Tommy Nance pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    · ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  26. T9

    Nance relieved Bruihl

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  27. T9

    Straw in left field.

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 4·TOR 10

  30. B8

    ·

    MIN 4·TOR 10

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

4

Runs

10

5

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

11

TB

19

2

HR

2

3

BB

5

6

K

7

9

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597

Player projections

TOR vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Bailey OberMIN
    2.4± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    66.7%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.6%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.7%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    97
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    98
    14(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    204
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 92
    1115
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 92
    264
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 92
    205
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs