HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4KC
CHW

CHW

44-80

2
6
KC

KC

63-61

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
15,114 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

CHW

league avg

KC

KC

.737

OPS

◀

.717

.694

.325

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.44

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CHW 2 · KC 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1000010002
KC000000246

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 17·Final/SeriesKC wins series 7-0

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Chicago White Sox, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. FrazierKC+36.9pp
  2. 2S. WilsonCHW−35.5pp
  3. 3D. MartinCHW+35.4pp

CHW · top performer

CHW
Brooks Baldwin

Brooks Baldwin

LF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Jonathan India

Jonathan India

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanRF
.2694010012
L. Sosa2B
.2735111101
C. MontgomerySS
.2255000002
M. Vargas3B
.2294010012
A. BenintendiDH
.2234100000
E. QueroC
.2784021000
K. TeelC
.2502000000
C. Meidroth2B
.2512010021
B. BaldwinLF
.2364030001
- M. TaylorRF
.2150000000
- C. Mead1B
.2652000001
Team362921410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. MartinSP
6.01003487
S. WilsonRP
0.23220019
G. TaylorRP
1.03330124
J. LeasureRP
0.1111019
Team8.086636139

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiLF
.1903010010
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2903110010
V. Pasquantino1B
.2574000002
M. Garcia3B
.3004111000
S. PerezC
.2444111001
A. Frazier2B
.3294222100
J. India2B
.2383112111
J. RaveRF
.2203010001
L. MaileC
.2503000001
- K. IsbelCF
.2630000000
Team31686236

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. BergertSP
5.16212795
A. ZerpaRP
0.20001218
S. LongRP
1.02000012
L. ErcegRP
1.01001118
C. EstevezRP
1.0000008
Team9.0921410151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • D. Martin
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      34%·90.2 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.7 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      6%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      21%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • ST
      58%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      37%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • R. Bergert
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      41%·92.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.6 mph·47% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      44%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      33%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·75.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

KC wins series 7-0

May 5CHWCHW0@KCKC3
May 6CHWCHW3@KCKC4
May 7CHWCHW1@KCKC2
May 8CHWCHW0@KCKC10
Aug 16CHWCHW1@KCKC3
Aug 16CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 17CHWCHW2@KCKC6today

Season series

KC leads series 8-2

May 5CHWCHW0@KCKC3
May 6CHWCHW3@KCKC4
May 7CHWCHW1@KCKC2
May 8CHWCHW0@KCKC10
Jun 6KCKC2@CHWCHW7
Jun 7KCKC1@CHWCHW4
Jun 8KCKC7@CHWCHW5
Aug 16CHWCHW1@KCKC3
Aug 16CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 17CHWCHW2@KCKC6today
Aug 25KCKC0@CHWCHW7
Aug 26KCKC5@CHWCHW4
Aug 27KCKC12@CHWCHW1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 37pp · Bottom 7th Inning

CHWCHW
B. Baldwin

B. Baldwin

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

D. Martin

D. Martin

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

KCKC
J. India

J. India

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Bergert

R. Bergert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat CHW 6-2. India's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Win probability

KC vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 4th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 55% WP

Pasquantino · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second, Yastrzemski to third.

KCBottom 7th Inning · 2-2
+37pp→ 55% WP

India · homered to left center (451 feet), Frazier scored.

KCBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+31pp→ 86% WP

Garcia · singled to right, Witt Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1000010002
KC00000024—6

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · KC won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Sosa 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Quero 1

0
2

Inn 7

India 2

0
4

Inn 8

Frazier 2

0

Inn 9

CHW
KC

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  2. T9

    Vargas lined out to left.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  5. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  6. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  7. T9

    Montgomery flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

    +0.5pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  9. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  10. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  11. T9

    Sosa lined out to left.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

    +0.8pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  17. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  18. T9

    Estévez relieved Erceg

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  19. T9

    Rave in left field.

    CHW 2·KC 6

  20. T9

    Isbel in center field.

    CHW 2·KC 6

  21. T9

    Frazier at second base.

    CHW 2·KC 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 2·KC 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 2·KC 6

  24. B8

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  25. B8

    India struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

6

9

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

14

TB

16

1

HR

2

4

BB

3

10

K

6

20

LOB

8

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Noah CameronKC
    5.0± 3.0low

Hits

  • Kameron MisnerKC
    1.5± 0.8low
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    2.3± 3.5low
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.9± 2.9high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kameron MisnerKC
    0.8± 1.3low

Earned runs

  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.8%

    P(KC win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.