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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ARI
TEX

TEX

72-69

0
2
ARI

ARI

70-71

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
14,921 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

TEX 0 · ARI 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000000000
ARI110000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 98
    190
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    191
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 95
    122
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 94
    212
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    193
    30(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    191
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Texas Rangers, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Alejandro Osuna

Alejandro Osuna

LF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX72-69
0
2
ARI70-71
TEX72-69·ARI70-71
TEX

TEX

72-69

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT27.354
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-33000001
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-44000002
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
0-44000001
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-22010020
SPRINT2872
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.891
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-22000000
J. JungJ. Jung3B
0-11000001
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11000000
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11000000
Team5-3333050037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
6.0322380
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.2000020
C. MartinC. MartinRP
0.1000000
Team8.03223100
ARI

ARI

70-71

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000002
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33000011
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-22110011
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-33011000
SPRINT26.428
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-33000001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-33000002
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-22100011
SPRINT27.867
T. LocklearT. Locklear★1B
1-33010001
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-22001000
SPRINT29.698
J. BarrosaJ. BarrosaCF
0-11000001
Team3-26262320310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
6.0400150
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.2000100
J. CurtissJ. CurtissRP
0.1000000
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0100010
J. WoodfordJ. WoodfordRP
1.0000110
Team9.0500370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    99 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      46%·97.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.4 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      3%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      63%·94.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      33%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.0 mph·— whiff

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    97 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      19%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Woodford
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      33%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Saalfrank
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      71%·89.5 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      29%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      67%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·76.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Curtiss
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      75%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

3

0

Runs

2

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 2TEXTEX7@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX3@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX0@ARIARI2today

Season series

ARI wins series 4-2

Aug 12ARIARI6@TEXTEX7
Aug 13ARIARI3@TEXTEX2
Aug 13ARIARI6@TEXTEX4
Sep 2TEXTEX7@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX3@ARIARI5
Sep 3TEXTEX0@ARIARI2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TEXTEX
A. Osuna

A. Osuna

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.167 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat TEX 2-0.

Win probability

ARI vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 68% WP

Moreno · singled to right, Carroll scored.

TEXTop 8th Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 21% WP

Langford · singled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000000000
ARI11000000—2

Period scoring

TEX won 0 · ARI won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Moreno 1

0
1

Inn 2

Thomas 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TEX
ARI

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  2. T9

    Moore grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Osuna out at second.

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  6. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Dylan Moore

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  7. T9

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  8. T9

    Duran flied out to center.

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

    +5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  11. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    · ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  12. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  13. T9

    Osuna walked.

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

    −4pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  22. T9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Alejandro Osuna

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  23. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  24. T9

    Freeman struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

    +3pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 0·ARI 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

0

Runs

2

5

Hits

3

1

Errors

1

6

TB

4

0

HR

0

3

BB

3

7

K

10

19

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.4high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.7± 2.5high
  • Josh JungTEX
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Ildemaro VargasARI
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    49.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.