• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5WSH
MIA

MIA

65-75

5
10
WSH

WSH

56-83

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
11,190 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

MIA 5 · WSH 10 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000400105
WSH3202010210

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    159
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 92
    307
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 92
    213
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 91
    298
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 90
    18
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 90
    99
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Miami Marlins, 10–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Joey Wiemer

Joey Wiemer

RF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Nasim Nunez

Nasim Nunez

2B

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA65-75
5
10
WSH56-83
MIA65-75·WSH56-83
MIA

MIA

65-75

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-55110000
SPRINT2872
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-55110003
SPRINT27.354
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-55020001
SPRINT27.765
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010000
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
1-22112021
SPRINT28.483
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-44010001
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44110000
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
2-22122100
SPRINT28.891
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-44000000
L. HicksL. HicksC
0-11000001
Team10-36365104127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
4.0877122
M. PetersenM. PetersenRP
1.0000020
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0111120
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.0000110
L. AriasL. AriasRP
1.0222011
Team8.0111010383
WSH

WSH

56-83

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-44210011
SPRINT27.457
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT29.395
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000010
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44112001
SPRINT26.735
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-44000003
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
1-44011001
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33210011
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-44222101
SPRINT2872
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
3-44234200
SPRINT29.899
Team11-3535101110338
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ParkerM. Parker★RP
4.2742141
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0100000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.1100000
M. ThompsonM. ThompsonRP
1.0110110
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.0000020
Team9.01052271

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • E. Perez
    76 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.1 mph·40% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Petersen
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      44%·87.8 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      47%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·84.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      18%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      6%·86.7 mph·— whiff
  • L. Arias
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·82.2 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • M. Parker
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      38%·80.4 mph·38% whiff
    • FS
      10%·85.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Thompson
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      48%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      48%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      46%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.9 mph·— whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      31%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      31%·72.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      23%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      15%·81.2 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • CH
      50%·79.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·90.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

5

Runs

10

2

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10today

Season series

MIA leads series 5-4

Apr 11WSHWSH7@MIAMIA4
Apr 12WSHWSH6@MIAMIA7
Apr 13WSHWSH4@MIAMIA11
Jun 13MIAMIA11@WSHWSH9
Jun 14MIAMIA4@WSHWSH3
Jun 15MIAMIA3@WSHWSH1
Sep 1MIAMIA0@WSHWSH2
Sep 2MIAMIA2@WSHWSH5
Sep 3MIAMIA5@WSHWSH10today
Sep 8WSHWSH15@MIAMIA7
Sep 9WSHWSH7@MIAMIA5
Sep 10WSHWSH3@MIAMIA8
Sep 11WSHWSH0@MIAMIA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning

MIAMIA
J. Wiemer

J. Wiemer

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
N. Nunez

N. Nunez

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIA 10-5.

Win probability

WSH vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+15pp→ 74% WP

Garc · ía Jr. singled to right, Wood scored and Lile scored.

WSHTop 4th Inning · 0-5
+9pp→ 95% WP

Norby · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Hernández out at second.

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 4-7
+9pp→ 90% WP

Bell · safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Wagaman.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000400105
WSH32020102—10

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · WSH won 5

0
3

Inn 1

Garc 2

0
2

Inn 2

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

House 2

4
0

Inn 5

Wiemer 2

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
2

Inn 8

Hicks 1

0

Inn 9

MIA
WSH

Play-by-play · 605 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  2. T9

    Marsee struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  8. T9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  9. T9

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  10. T9

    Ramírez struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  16. T9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  17. T9

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  18. T9

    Edwards grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  22. T9

    Shinnosuke Ogasawara pitches to Xavier Edwards

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  23. T9

    Ogasawara relieved Thompson

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  26. B8

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  27. B8

    Lile lined out to center.

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

  30. B8

    Luarbert Arias pitches to Daylen Lile

    ·

    MIA 5·WSH 10

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

5

Runs

10

10

Hits

11

2

Errors

1

14

TB

22

1

HR

3

2

BB

3

7

K

8

18

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 10 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Connor NorbyMIA · 1B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    46.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.7%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.