MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4BOS

CLE

68-69

711

BOS

78-62

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

34,902 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
64.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.1%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
64.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 1.1high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

BOS

.689

OPS

.717

▶

.698

.317

OBP

.319

.314

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

4.03

3.75

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.91

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

CLE 7 · BOS 11 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	7
BOS	0	4	1	0	0	2	0	4	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. KwanCF	.271	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.225	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Ramirez3B	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. FryRF	.159	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.233	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. NoelRF	.159	4	2	3	1	1	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.235	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
N. JonesRF	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HedgesC	.147	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
Team		37	7	11	7	4	0	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.271

.225

.280

.159

.233

.159

.235

.215

.147

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. CecconiSP	5.1	11	7	7	0	8	82
N. EnrightRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	11
T. HerrinRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	14
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	13
C. SmithRP	0.0	4	3	3	0	0	11
Z. KentRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	8.0	18	11	11	0	11	132

Player

5.1

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.1

Team

8.0

132

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. AnthonyLF	.292	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A. Bregman3B	.285	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.259	5	1	1	1	0	0	3
T. StorySS	.261	5	0	2	2	0	0	2
N. LoweDH	.333	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
R. Gonzalez1B	.299	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.242	4	2	3	0	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.251	4	3	2	4	1	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.249	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
N. EatonOF	.275	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. RefsnyderDH	.279	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BernardinoRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HamiltonSS	.201	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	11	18	11	2	0	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. CrochetSP	6.0	9	7	7	0	4	81
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	11	7	7	0	6	120

Team

CLE

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.