MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MIA

MIA

59-65

BOS

68-57

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

35,931 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
61.7%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.6%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.6%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.6± 1.8medium
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.7low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.5± 0.8high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.0high
Liam HicksMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
2.6± 3.2high
Otto LopezMIA
2.1± 1.6high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Joe MackMIA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.0medium
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

BOS

.701

OPS

.717

.697

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.314

4.22

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

4.17

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.29

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 5 · BOS 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	5
BOS	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.302	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Sanoja3B	.241	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. MyersCF	.237	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. Wagaman1B	.235	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
D. HillRF	.217	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.264	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.207	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.377	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
Team		35	5	8	5	3	1	9

Player

.302

.235

.239

.280

.241

.237

.000

.235

.217

.264

.207

.377

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	7.0	6	3	3	1	6	87
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
A. BenderRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	7	113

Player

J. JunkSP

7.0

T. PhillipsRP

1.0

A. BenderRP

1.0

Team

9.0

113

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.276	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.258	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. DuranLF	.263	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. YoshidaDH	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.253	3	2	2	2	1	0	0
R. Gonzalez1B	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
A. Toro1B	.247	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.255	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. NarvaezC	.248	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.305	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	7	3	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	7.0	3	1	1	1	8	94
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
G. WeissertRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	8
S. MatzSP	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	11
Team	9.0	8	5	5	1	9	134

Team

MIA

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.