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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BAL
BAL

BAL

51-60

4
3
CHC

CHC

64-46

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,781 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · CHC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000404
CHC0201000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL51-60
4
3
CHC64-46
BAL51-60·CHC64-46
BAL

BAL

51-60

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44100001
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
2-44121001
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44123101
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-33010010
SPRINT26.632
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44000002
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-44000001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33100012
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT26.530
L. VazquezL. Vazquez★SS
0-22000001
Jor. AdamsJor. AdamsCF
0-11000000
T. VavraT. Vavra2B
0-11000000
Team7-3333474129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
5.0533150
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0200010
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0100120
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000010
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0000220
Team9.08334110
CHC

CHC

64-46

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000001
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-55010003
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-22000030
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-55000004
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.662
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
2-44220000
SPRINT27.969
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-44032000
SPRINT28.278
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
1-33011001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-44000002
Team8-35353830411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
7.0400080
R. BrasierR. BrasierRP
0.1122100
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2222101
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000010
Team9.0744291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    95 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      28%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.0 mph·9% whiff
    • FS
      15%·87.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    27 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      30%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      26%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Martin
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      38%·91.3 mph·100% whiff

CHC

  • M. Boyd
    92 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.3 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      26%·78.4 mph·54% whiff
    • CU
      16%·74.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.3 mph·56% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·76.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Brasier
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·77.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Aug 1BALBAL0@CHCCHC1
Aug 2BALBAL4@CHCCHC3today
Aug 3BALBAL3@CHCCHC5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 1BALBAL0@CHCCHC1
Aug 2BALBAL4@CHCCHC3today
Aug 3BALBAL3@CHCCHC5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 50pp · Top 8th Inning

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

BAL beat CHC 4-3. Henderson's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (50pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+50pp→ 61% WP

Henderson · homered to right center (416 feet), Holliday scored and Westburg scored.

CHCBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+14pp→ 30% WP

Kelly · walked.

BALBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+21pp→ 100% WP

Crow-Armstrong · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000404
CHC0201000003

Period scoring

BAL won 1 · CHC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
0

Inn 8

Henderson 3

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
CHC

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  3. B9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

    −21pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  11. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  12. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  13. B9

    Suzuki walked, Berti to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

    +6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  20. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  21. B9

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  22. B9

    Tucker struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

    −15pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  28. B9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Kyle Tucker

    · ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  29. B9

    Berti ran for Kelly

    ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

  30. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·CHC 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

4

Runs

3

7

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

11

TB

12

1

HR

0

2

BB

4

9

K

11

8

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHC vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.0%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 97
    70
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    232
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    13
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    63
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    15
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    285
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs