MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIN

75-60

MIN

61-73

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

24,336 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.5%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
41.6%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.4%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.1%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.3± 2.9medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.9± 2.4low
Michael KingSD
5.2± 2.9low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.9± 2.8high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.4± 2.2high
Royce LewisMIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.7± 0.9high
Josh BellMIN
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIN

.658

OPS

.717

▶

.718

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.318

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.63

3.91

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.86

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

SD 4 · MIN 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	4
MIN	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.265	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
L. Arraez2B	.283	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. O'HearnRF	.254	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.302	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.265	3	2	3	0	0	1	0
J. Iglesias2B	.233	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.249	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
F. FerminC	.246	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Wagner3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.197	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	4	9	4	0	3	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.265

.283

.285

.254

.302

.265

.233

.249

.246

.250

.197

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. CortesSP	3.0	5	3	3	2	2	66
W. PeraltaRP	0.1	2	2	1	0	0	9
D. MorganRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	0	33
Y. MatsuiRP	1.0	2	1	1	3	1	38
A. JacobRP	2.1	1	0	0	1	1	34
Team	8.0	12	7	6	7	4	180

Player

3.0

0.1

1.1

1.0

2.1

Team

8.0

180

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. BuxtonCF	.269	5	0	1	2	0	0	0
R. JeffersC	.261	4	0	2	0	0	1	0
L. Keaschall2B	.324	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. LeeSS	.246	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WallnerRF	.215	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. MartinRF	.273	3	1	2	0	0	2	1
R. Lewis3B	.229	3	2	2	1	1	1	1
K. Clemens1B	.217	3	3	1	1	0	1	0
T. LarnachLF	.246	4	0	3	2	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.172	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	12	6	1	7	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
Z. MatthewsSP	6.0	7	3	2	0	3	96
J. TopaRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	24
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	23
Team	9.0	9	4	3	3	6	160

Team

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.