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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3STL
PIT

PIT

59-76

1
4
STL

STL

66-69

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
18,894 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

PIT 1 · STL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1000000001
STL001000304

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    114
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    290
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    232
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    300
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    303
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 28·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT59-76
1
4
STL66-69
PIT59-76·STL66-69
PIT

PIT

59-76

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000011
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-44111103
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33000000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-22000011
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-44000000
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
1-33010001
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
1-33010011
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000001
J. TrioloJ. Triolo3B
1-11010000
SPRINT28.483
Team5-3030151139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
5.2411150
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
0.2233101
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
0.2100010
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.0000010
Team8.0744271
STL

STL

66-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
3-44130000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44011000
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-33000011
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-33000001
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000003
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33100011
SPRINT2872
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-33121000
SPRINT27.354
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33112101
SPRINT28.891
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-33000000
Team7-3030474127
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
5.0411151
K. LeahyK. LeahySP
2.0000240
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000000
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100000
Team9.0511391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    73 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.4 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      25%·92.0 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Holderman
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      36%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      36%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      21%·98.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      7%·97.2 mph·— whiff

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      22%·77.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CS
      1%·67.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Leahy
    38 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      26%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      38%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 5-2

May 5PITPIT3@STLSTL6
May 6PITPIT1@STLSTL2
May 7PITPIT0@STLSTL5
Aug 25PITPIT6@STLSTL7
Aug 26PITPIT8@STLSTL3
Aug 27PITPIT2@STLSTL1
Aug 28PITPIT1@STLSTL4today

Season series

PIT wins series 7-6

Apr 7STLSTL4@PITPIT8
Apr 8STLSTL5@PITPIT3
Apr 9STLSTL1@PITPIT2
May 5PITPIT3@STLSTL6
May 6PITPIT1@STLSTL2
May 7PITPIT0@STLSTL5
Jun 30STLSTL0@PITPIT7
Jul 1STLSTL0@PITPIT1
Jul 2STLSTL0@PITPIT5
Aug 25PITPIT6@STLSTL7
Aug 26PITPIT8@STLSTL3
Aug 27PITPIT2@STLSTL1
Aug 28PITPIT1@STLSTL4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 7th Inning

PITPIT
J. Triolo

J. Triolo

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat PIT 4-1. Saggese's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

STL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 47% WP

Pham · homered to left center (440 feet).

STLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 49% WP

Horwitz · grounded out to pitcher.

STLBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 89% WP

Saggese · doubled to center, Winn scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1000000001
STL00100030—4

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · STL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Pham 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Herrera 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Walker 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
STL

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  2. T9

    Kiner-Falefa popped out to second.

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  9. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  10. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  11. T9

    Peguero grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Triolo out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

    +5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  16. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Liover Peguero

    · ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  17. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  18. T9

    Triolo singled to left.

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

    −3pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  21. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Jared Triolo

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  22. T9

    Romero relieved O'Brien

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  23. T9

    Triolo hit for Suwinski

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 1·STL 4

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 1·STL 4

  26. B8

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  27. B8

    Winn fouled out to third.

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 1·STL 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

STL

Home

1

Runs

4

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

13

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

9

K

7

14

LOB

8

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872