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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ATH
ATH

ATH

58-70

4
2
MIN

MIN

58-68

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
18,448 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 4 · MIN 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATH01010000024
MIN00002000002

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom

LF

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Brooks Lee

Brooks Lee

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATH58-70
4
2
MIN58-68
ATH58-70·MIN58-68
ATH

ATH

58-70

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33110021
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-55112101
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-55000002
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-33221121
SPRINT26.735
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-22000000
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-33011001
SPRINT27.969
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
0-44000003
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
0-44000002
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
0-22000001
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-33000001
C. CortesC. CortesRF
1-11010000
SPRINT25.716
Team6-35354642513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
4.2722250
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0100000
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0200100
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
0.2000110
M. KellyM. KellyRP
0.2100000
T. FergusonT. FergusonRP
1.0000100
Team10.01122560
MIN

MIN

58-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000012
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
3-44031000
SPRINT26.428
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44020010
SPRINT28.688
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-22000001
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-33000021
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-44000001
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT27.251
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
1-33010010
A. MartinA. MartinLF
0-11000000
R. LewisR. Lewis3B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
E. JulienE. Julien2B
0-11000000
Team11-38382112056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
5.2322171
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
0.1000100
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0000010
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0100210
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
0.2100120
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
1.1121021
Team10.06435132

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J.T. Ginn
    81 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      42%·94.1 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      27%·89.7 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      10%·93.8 mph·14% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      29%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·78.7 mph·— whiff
  • E. Alvarado
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Ferguson
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      37%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harris
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      22%·75.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      67%·84.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      28%·92.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.8 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    82 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      32%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      28%·89.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      16%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      16%·77.5 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      6%·73.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      2%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      60%·84.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cabrera
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      35%·90.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sands
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      29%·95.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      18%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FS
      44%·82.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      38%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·86.0 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      43%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      43%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

11

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Aug 19ATHATH6@MINMIN3
Aug 20ATHATH4@MINMIN2today
Aug 21ATHATH8@MINMIN3

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 3MINMIN10@ATHATH4
Jun 4MINMIN10@ATHATH3
Jun 5MINMIN6@ATHATH1
Jun 5MINMIN3@ATHATH14
Aug 19ATHATH6@MINMIN3
Aug 20ATHATH4@MINMIN2today
Aug 21ATHATH8@MINMIN3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 10th Inning

ATHATH
T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
B. Lee

B. Lee

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat MIN 4-2. Langeliers's play in the top 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 10th inning

Win probability

MIN vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 59% WP

Lee · doubled to center, Larnach scored.

MINTop 8th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 54% WP

Rooker · flied out to right.

ATHTop 10th Inning · 4-2
+33pp→ 82% WP

Langeliers · homered to right center (401 feet), Kurtz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATH01010000024
MIN00002000002

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Hernaiz 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Soderstrom 1

0
2

Inn 5

Larnach 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

2
0

Inn 10

Langeliers 2

ATH
MIN

Play-by-play · 671 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  2. B10

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  3. B10

    Julien grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

    −9pp

  4. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  5. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  6. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  7. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  8. B10

    Tyler Ferguson pitches to Edouard Julien

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  9. B10

    Gasper ran for Jeffers

    ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  10. B10

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  11. B10

    Jeffers walked.

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

    +4pp

  12. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  13. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  14. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  15. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  16. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  17. B10

    Tyler Ferguson pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  18. B10

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  19. B10

    Lewis fouled out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

    −10pp

  20. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  21. B10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  22. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  23. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  24. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  25. B10

    Tyler Ferguson pitches to Royce Lewis

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  26. B10

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  27. B10

    Keaschall lined out to center, Martin to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

    −9pp

  28. B10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  29. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

  30. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 4·MIN 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

2

6

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

14

TB

15

2

HR

0

5

BB

5

13

K

6

17

LOB

24

Player projections

MIN vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.6%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    231
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    290
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    111
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    300
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    176
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs