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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

59-75

2
1
STL

STL

65-69

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
19,836 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 2 · STL 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000020002
STL0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    300
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    232
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    231
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 94
    170
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 93
    114
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 93
    111
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Pedro Pages

Pedro Pages

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT59-75
2
1
STL65-69
PIT59-75·STL65-69
PIT

PIT

59-75

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-22100021
SPRINT28.483
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-44100000
SPRINT24.85
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33000011
SPRINT27.969
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-44012000
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000011
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-33000012
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-44000003
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
2-33020000
SPRINT27.560
Team3-3030232059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
3.0311340
B. ChandlerB. ChandlerSP
4.0100130
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000110
Team9.0411590
STL

STL

65-69

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-22000020
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000003
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44000002
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-33110001
SPRINT2872
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-22000020
P. PagesP. Pages★C
2-44021000
SPRINT25.716
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-33000002
Team4-2929141059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
7.0321370
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
2.0000220
Team9.0321590

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    53 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      62%·99.2 mph·26% whiff
    • CH
      23%·92.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      9%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    46 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      30%·87.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·86.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      23%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • I. Mattson
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      88%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    87 pitches·34% CSW
    • CU
      24%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      22%·87.2 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      18%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      48%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      41%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      10%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

4

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 5-2

May 5PITPIT3@STLSTL6
May 6PITPIT1@STLSTL2
May 7PITPIT0@STLSTL5
Aug 25PITPIT6@STLSTL7
Aug 26PITPIT8@STLSTL3
Aug 27PITPIT2@STLSTL1today
Aug 28PITPIT1@STLSTL4

Season series

PIT leads series 7-5

Apr 7STLSTL4@PITPIT8
Apr 8STLSTL5@PITPIT3
Apr 9STLSTL1@PITPIT2
May 5PITPIT3@STLSTL6
May 6PITPIT1@STLSTL2
May 7PITPIT0@STLSTL5
Jun 30STLSTL0@PITPIT7
Jul 1STLSTL0@PITPIT1
Jul 2STLSTL0@PITPIT5
Aug 25PITPIT6@STLSTL7
Aug 26PITPIT8@STLSTL3
Aug 27PITPIT2@STLSTL1today
Aug 28PITPIT1@STLSTL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 6th Inning

PITPIT
I. Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
P. Pages

P. Pages

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat STL 2-1. Pham's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 77% WP

Cruz · grounded out to third.

PITTop 6th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 33% WP

Kiner-Falefa · doubled to center.

PITTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+22pp→ 63% WP

Pham · singled to center, Horwitz scored and Triolo scored, Reynolds to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000020002
STL0100000001

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Pag 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Pham 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
STL

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·STL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  3. B9

    Pagés grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  8. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Pedro Pages

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  9. B9

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  10. B9

    Saggese walked.

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

    +4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  16. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  17. B9

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  18. B9

    Winn struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

    −7pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  22. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Masyn Winn

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  23. B9

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  24. B9

    Gorman flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

    −9pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  26. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Nolan Gorman

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  27. B9

    Santana relieved Mattson

    ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·STL 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·STL 1

  30. T9

    · ·

    PIT 2·STL 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

1

3

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

4

TB

4

0

HR

0

5

BB

5

9

K

9

14

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.