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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5BOS
BOS

BOS

73-60

5
0
BAL

BAL

60-72

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
14,776 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 5 · BAL 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0110000125
BAL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 97
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 97
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 97
    142
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 96
    24
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 95
    145
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 95
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
David Hamilton

David Hamilton

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Alex Jackson

Alex Jackson

C

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS73-60
5
0
BAL60-72
BOS73-60·BAL60-72
BOS

BOS

73-60

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44010001
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000003
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44121101
SPRINT27.969
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.411
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
0-44000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44210001
SPRINT28.790
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
2-33123100
SPRINT29.294
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44001002
Team9-34345952111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
8.0400180
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.0200020
Team9.06001100
BAL

BAL

60-72

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-33000011
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000003
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.175
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44010000
SPRINT25.310
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44000001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.194
V. MachinV. Machin★SS
0-33000000
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
2-33020000
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle1B
0-11000001
Team6-33330600110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
6.04220102
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0000000
Y. HiraldoY. HiraldoRP
1.1433110
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.2100000
Team9.09551112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    104 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      51%·93.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      26%·81.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      2%·78.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Wilson
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      24%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.5 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    81 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      36%·94.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.0 mph·83% whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      47%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      3%·93.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      38%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      13%·90.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 6-1

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0today
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2

Season series

BOS leads series 6-5

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
May 22BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 23BALBAL5@BOSBOS19
May 23BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 24BALBAL5@BOSBOS6
May 24BALBAL2@BOSBOS1
May 25BALBAL5@BOSBOS1
Aug 18BALBAL6@BOSBOS3
Aug 19BALBAL4@BOSBOS3
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0today
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
D. Hamilton

D. Hamilton

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
A. Jackson

A. Jackson

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

BOS beat BAL 5-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Story · homered to left (372 feet).

BOSTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 69% WP

Hamilton · homered to right (364 feet).

BOSBottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+8pp→ 77% WP

Henderson · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0110000125
BAL0000000000

Period scoring

BOS won 4 · BAL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Story 1

1
0

Inn 3

Hamilton 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Narv 1

2
0

Inn 9

Hamilton 2

BOS
BAL

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  3. B9

    Mountcastle struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  7. B9

    Basallo to second on passed ball by Narváez, Cowser to third on passed ball by Narváez.

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  8. B9

    Basallo to second on passed ball by Narváez, Cowser to third on passed ball by Narváez.

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  11. B9

    Justin Wilson pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  12. B9

    Mountcastle hit for Beavers

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  13. B9

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  14. B9

    Mayo struck out looking.

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

    −1pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  19. B9

    Justin Wilson pitches to Coby Mayo

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  20. B9

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  21. B9

    Basallo singled to right, Cowser to second.

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

    +0.8pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  24. B9

    Justin Wilson pitches to Samuel Basallo

    · ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  25. B9

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  26. B9

    Cowser reached on infield single to second.

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 0

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

5

Runs

0

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

17

TB

7

2

HR

0

1

BB

1

11

K

10

9

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    44.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.