• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2MIA
TOR

TOR

76-55

3
5
MIA

MIA

61-69

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
20,620 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

TOR 3 · MIA 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0000003003
MIA001030105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Player projections

MIA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    43.8%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.1%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.9%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    24
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    23
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 95
    24
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    164
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Bo Bichette

Bo Bichette

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Derek Hill

Derek Hill

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR76-55
3
5
MIA61-69
TOR76-55·MIA61-69
TOR

TOR

76-55

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000000
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000011
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-33120010
SPRINT25.716
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-22100010
SPRINT24.74
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-44113102
SPRINT26.838
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-44000001
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000001
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000000
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.1B
0-11000000
Team4-3131343136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
6.0744171
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.0211100
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
1.0100010
Team8.01055281
MIA

MIA

61-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-33100011
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-44123001
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44011001
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-33000011
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33000001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-33020001
SPRINT26.326
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
2-44221100
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT28.381
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000001
D. HillD. HillRF
1-11010000
Team10-33335105128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. PerezE. Perez★SP
6.0322140
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.2111221
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
0.1000000
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.0000000
Team9.0433361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    94 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.9 mph·21% whiff
    • FS
      34%·84.6 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      9%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      42%·85.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      21%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      36%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.3 mph·— whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    94 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      64%·97.9 mph·28% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      3%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      1%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    31 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·90.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      13%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • ST
      57%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

10

3

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 22TORTOR5@MIAMIA2
Aug 23TORTOR7@MIAMIA6
Aug 24TORTOR3@MIAMIA5today

Season series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 22TORTOR5@MIAMIA2
Aug 23TORTOR7@MIAMIA6
Aug 24TORTOR3@MIAMIA5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 7th Inning

TORTOR
B. Bichette

B. Bichette

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

MIAMIA
D. Hill

D. Hill

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat TOR 5-3. Varsho's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIA vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 5th Inning · 0-4
+16pp→ 95% WP

Marsee · tripled to center, Wagaman scored, Sanoja scored and Edwards scored.

TORTop 7th Inning · 3-4
+18pp→ 31% WP

Varsho · homered to center (424 feet), Bichette scored and France scored.

MIABottom 7th Inning · 3-5
+10pp→ 88% WP

Ram · írez singled to center, Marsee scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0000003003
MIA00103010—5

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · MIA won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Wagaman 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
3

Inn 5

Marsee 3

0
0

Inn 6

3
1

Inn 7

Varsho 3

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
MIA

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  2. T9

    Schneider popped out to second.

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  5. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Davis Schneider

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  6. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  7. T9

    Clement grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

    +2pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  9. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Ernie Clement

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  10. T9

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  11. T9

    Varsho grounded out to first.

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  15. T9

    Tyler Phillips pitches to Daulton Varsho

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  16. T9

    Phillips relieved Henriquez

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  17. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  18. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  19. B8

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  20. B8

    Wagaman lined into double play, to first, Hill doubled off first.

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  21. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  22. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  27. B8

    Paxton Schultz pitches to Eric Wagaman

    · ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  28. B8

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

  29. B8

    Hill singled to left.

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

    +0.6pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 3·MIA 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

3

Runs

5

4

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

8

TB

16

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

6

K

8

4

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872