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FINAL+4LAD
CIN

CIN

68-66

1
5
LAD

LAD

77-57

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
49,199 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

CIN 1 · LAD 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0010000001
LAD000400015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Cincinnati Reds, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Noelvi Marte

Noelvi Marte

RF

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Michael Conforto

Michael Conforto

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CIN68-66
1
5
LAD77-57
CIN68-66·LAD77-57
CIN

CIN

68-66

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
2-44020010
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44111112
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-55010004
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-33000012
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-44000003
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-22000021
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
1-33010011
SPRINT23.40
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-44000003
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33010002
SPRINT28.586
W. BensonW. BensonRF
0-11000001
Team6-33331611619
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. LodoloN. Lodolo★SP
4.2544160
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0100020
S. MollS. MollRP
0.2000100
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
0.2000200
B. SuterB. SuterRP
1.0111111
Team8.0755591
LAD

LAD

77-57

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-55110000
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33000010
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-22110011
SPRINT28.381
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44110002
E. HernándezE. Hernández★1B
1-44112002
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
2-44121101
SPRINT2622
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-33000010
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-33012010
SPRINT27.867
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33000013
Team7-3131575159
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
5.0211291
SPRINT2744
J. DreyerJ. Dreyer★RP
1.0000120
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
1.0300120
E. HenriquezE. Henriquez★RP
1.0000130
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
1.0100130
Team9.06116191

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

1

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Aug 26CINCIN0@LADLAD7
Aug 27CINCIN3@LADLAD6
Aug 28CINCIN1@LADLAD5today

Season series

LAD win series 5-1

Jul 28LADLAD5@CINCIN2
Jul 29LADLAD5@CINCIN4
Jul 30LADLAD2@CINCIN5
Aug 26CINCIN0@LADLAD7
Aug 27CINCIN3@LADLAD6
Aug 28CINCIN1@LADLAD5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CINCIN
N. Marte

N. Marte

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

N. Lodolo

N. Lodolo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
M. Conforto

M. Conforto

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

LAD beat CIN 5-1.

Win probability

LAD vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 60% WP

Marte · homered to left center (410 feet).

LADBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+17pp→ 74% WP

E. Hern · ández singled to center, Ohtani scored and T. Hernández scored, Pages to second.

LADBottom 4th Inning · 1-4
+15pp→ 88% WP

Rushing · singled to center, E. Hernández scored and Pages scored, Rojas to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0010000001
LAD00040001—5

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · LAD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Marte 1

0
4

Inn 4

Hern 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Conforto 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
LAD

Play-by-play · 599 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  2. T9

    De La Cruz struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  5. T9

    Marte to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  6. T9

    Marte to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  8. T9

    Friedl to third on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  9. T9

    Friedl to third on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  12. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  13. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  14. T9

    Marte walked.

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

    −0.8pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  19. T9

    Friedl to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  20. T9

    Friedl to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  22. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to Noelvi Marte

    · ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  23. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  24. T9

    Friedl singled to center.

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  28. T9

    Blake Treinen pitches to TJ Friedl

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  29. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

  30. T9

    Benson struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 1·LAD 5

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

5

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

9

TB

10

1

HR

1

6

BB

5

19

K

9

18

LOB

17

Player projections

LAD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    57.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.8%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 96
    72
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    175
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    296
    19(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872