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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CIN
CIN

CIN

60-54

5
1
CHC

CHC

65-48

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
39,797 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 5 · CHC 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000104005
CHC0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    171
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 96
    171
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Spencer Steer

Spencer Steer

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN60-54
5
1
CHC65-48
CIN60-54·CHC65-48
CIN

CIN

60-54

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-44000001
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000002
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-33100011
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
2-44220001
SPRINT26.530
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44124101
SPRINT28.483
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.992
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
2-44020000
SPRINT23.40
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-22001000
K. HayesK. Hayes3B
0-11000000
Team9-3434595118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
7.0311281
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
0.2100000
S. MollS. MollRP
1.0000020
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
0.1000000
Team9.04112101
CHC

CHC

65-48

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.662
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000003
SPRINT26.123
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT29.294
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-44000001
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-33000010
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000002
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-33000000
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33111101
SPRINT28.992
Team4-31311411210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
6.1311070
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
0.1444101
T. RogersT. RogersRP
0.1100000
N. PearsonN. PearsonRP
2.0100010
Team9.0955181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

CHC

  • A. Kittredge
    9 pitches·89% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

5

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1today
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6

Season series

Series tied 4-4

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1today
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 38pp · Top 7th Inning

CINCIN
S. Steer

S. Steer

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

CIN beat CHC 5-1. Steer's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 5th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 56% WP

Steer · singled to left, Andujar scored.

CHCBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 62% WP

Shaw · homered to left center (396 feet).

CINTop 7th Inning · 4-1
+38pp→ 87% WP

Steer · homered to left center (377 feet), Hays scored and Andujar scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000104005
CHC0000100001

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · CHC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Steer 1

Shaw 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Steer 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
CHC

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  3. B9

    Hoerner grounded out to first.

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  6. B9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  7. B9

    Santillan relieved Moll

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  8. B9

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  9. B9

    Castro popped out to second.

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  13. B9

    Sam Moll pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  14. B9

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  15. B9

    Crow-Armstrong struck out looking.

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

    −1pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  22. B9

    Sam Moll pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  25. T9

    · ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  26. T9

    Hayes grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

  30. T9

    Nate Pearson pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    · ·

    CIN 5·CHC 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

5

Runs

1

9

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

15

TB

7

1

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

10

5

LOB

10

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278