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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CHW
CHW

CHW

54-88

7
5
DET

DET

81-61

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
35,216 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 7 · DET 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW1011112007
DET0022000105

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 7–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Colson Montgomery

Colson Montgomery

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Parker Meadows

Parker Meadows

CF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW54-88
7
5
DET81-61
CHW54-88·DET81-61
CHW

CHW

54-88

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44010010
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-44011011
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-44220000
SPRINT26.838
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-44224110
SPRINT26.326
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-33010001
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT26.632
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
1-22011001
B. RamosB. Ramos★3B
0-44000001
D. FletcherD. Fletcher★RF
2-44220000
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-22000000
Team11-35357117235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
5.0344261
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
1.2200130
D. AltavillaD. AltavillaRP
0.2211100
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.2000020
Team9.07554111
DET

DET

81-61

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-55010002
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-55000000
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-22000001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-22110020
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.941
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33100002
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
1-11112110
SPRINT28.381
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
1-22110001
SPRINT28.278
T. SweeneyT. SweeneySS
0-11000000
Team7-33335731411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
4.1644220
B. HornB. HornRP
1.0111011
K. MonteroK. MonteroSP
3.1422121
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.1000000
Team9.01177352

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Smith
    91 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.8 mph·26% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      16%·82.6 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      1%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    42 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      36%·89.3 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      31%·79.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      10%·83.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·89.9 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      44%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    18 pitches·6% CSW
    • SI
      39%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.2 mph·— whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    83 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      48%·92.0 mph·7% whiff
    • KC
      23%·77.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Montero
    53 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      19%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Horn
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      32%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      23%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Holton
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      67%·81.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

7

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

Apr 4CHWCHW4@DETDET7
Apr 5CHWCHW2@DETDET7
Apr 6CHWCHW3@DETDET4
Sep 5CHWCHW7@DETDET5today
Sep 6CHWCHW0@DETDET6
Sep 7CHWCHW6@DETDET4

Season series

DET leads series 7-4

Apr 4CHWCHW4@DETDET7
Apr 5CHWCHW2@DETDET7
Apr 6CHWCHW3@DETDET4
Jun 2DETDET13@CHWCHW1
Jun 3DETDET1@CHWCHW8
Jun 4DETDET5@CHWCHW4
Jun 5DETDET2@CHWCHW3
Aug 11DETDET2@CHWCHW1
Aug 12DETDET6@CHWCHW9
Aug 13DETDET1@CHWCHW0
Sep 5CHWCHW7@DETDET5today
Sep 6CHWCHW0@DETDET6
Sep 7CHWCHW6@DETDET4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 7th Inning

CHWCHW
C. Montgomery

C. Montgomery

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

DETDET
P. Meadows

P. Meadows

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat DET 7-5. Montgomery's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 3rd Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 68% WP

Meadows · homered to right (385 feet), Dingler scored.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 3-4
+20pp→ 75% WP

Dingler · struck out swinging.

CHWTop 7th Inning · 7-4
+27pp→ 85% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (379 feet), Mead scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW1011112007
DET0022000105

Period scoring

CHW won 4 · DET won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
2

Inn 3

Teel 1

Meadows 2

1
2

Inn 4

Robertson 1

Dingler 2

1
0

Inn 5

Montgomery 1

1
0

Inn 6

Benintendi 1

2
0

Inn 7

Montgomery 2

0
1

Inn 8

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
DET

Play-by-play · 630 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 7·DET 5

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  3. B9

    Torres flied out to left.

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  13. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Gleyber Torres

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  14. B9

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  15. B9

    Keith struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

    −4pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  21. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Colt Keith

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  22. B9

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  23. B9

    Sweeney flied out to left.

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

    −5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  26. B9

    Jordan Leasure pitches to Trey Sweeney

    ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

  27. B9

    Lee as designated hitter.

    CHW 7·DET 5

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 7·DET 5

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 7·DET 5

  30. T9

    · ·

    CHW 7·DET 5

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

DET

Home

7

Runs

5

11

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

20

TB

13

2

HR

1

3

BB

4

5

K

11

15

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Tristan PetersCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    63.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.7%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    46
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    204
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    201
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    43
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    264
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 94
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs