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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12ATH
ATH

ATH

44-62

15
3
HOU

HOU

60-44

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
37,700 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 15 · HOU 3 (by 12)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH32130101415
HOU0000200013

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesATH wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Houston Astros and beat them, 15–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

4.000OPS

6-6

AB-H

6

R

8

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Taylor Trammell

Taylor Trammell

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH44-62
15
3
HOU60-44
ATH44-62·HOU60-44
ATH

ATH

44-62

15
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
2-66220003
SPRINT25.716
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
6-66668400
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000012
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
3-55232111
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
2-55223112
SPRINT26.735
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-33011011
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44110002
G. UrshelaG. Urshela★3B
1-33110020
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-44101000
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-11000001
L. UriasL. Urias2B
0-11000000
Team16-41411516156612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
6.0422151
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
2.0000130
B. BowdenB. BowdenRP
1.0211000
Team9.0633281
HOU

HOU

60-44

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT29.395
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-11000010
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-22000002
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44011000
SPRINT25.513
C. HummelC. Hummel★LF
0-44000001
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-11000000
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
2-33120000
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
1-33112102
B. MatthewsB. MatthewsCF
0-22000002
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
1-11110000
SPRINT2744
J. SingletonJ. Singleton1B
0-22000000
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb3B
0-22000000
Team6-3131363128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HummelC. Hummel★LF
1.0544001
R. GustoR. Gusto★SP
3.1888152
N. HernandezN. HernandezRP
2.2222352
K. OrtK. OrtRP
2.0111221
Team9.01615156126

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

6

15

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 4-2

May 28ATHATH1@HOUHOU11
May 28ATHATH3@HOUHOU5
Jul 25ATHATH5@HOUHOU2
Jul 26ATHATH15@HOUHOU3today
Jul 26ATHATH5@HOUHOU1
Jul 27ATHATH7@HOUHOU1

Season series

Series tied 4-4

May 28ATHATH1@HOUHOU11
May 28ATHATH3@HOUHOU5
Jun 17HOUHOU1@ATHATH3
Jun 18HOUHOU13@ATHATH3
Jun 19HOUHOU11@ATHATH4
Jun 20HOUHOU4@ATHATH6
Jul 25ATHATH5@HOUHOU2
Jul 26ATHATH15@HOUHOU3today
Jul 26ATHATH5@HOUHOU1
Jul 27ATHATH7@HOUHOU1
Sep 24HOUHOU1@ATHATH5
Sep 25HOUHOU0@ATHATH6
Sep 25HOUHOU11@ATHATH5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 1st Inning

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game4-HR game

6-for-6 · 4 HR · 4.000 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
T. Trammell

T. Trammell

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Gusto

R. Gusto

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 5 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat HOU 15-3. Soderstrom's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 61% WP

Soderstrom · doubled to left, Langeliers scored and Kurtz scored.

ATHBottom 1st Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 72% WP

Altuve · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Smith out at second.

ATHTop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+14pp→ 86% WP

Kurtz · homered to left (384 feet), Schuemann scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH32130101415
HOU0000200013

Period scoring

ATH won 7 · HOU won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Soderstrom 2

2
0

Inn 2

Kurtz 2

1
0

Inn 3

Soderstrom 1

3
0

Inn 4

Langeliers 2

0
2

Inn 5

Short 2

1
0

Inn 6

Kurtz 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Kurtz 1

4
1

Inn 9

Kurtz 3

Diaz 1

ATH
HOU

Play-by-play · 642 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  3. B9

    Whitcomb flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  6. B9

    Ben Bowden pitches to Shay Whitcomb

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  7. B9

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  8. B9

    Hummel flied out to right, Diaz to third.

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  16. B9

    Ben Bowden pitches to Cooper Hummel

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  17. B9

    ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  18. B9

    Diaz doubled to left, Trammell scored.

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  26. B9

    Ben Bowden pitches to Yainer Diaz

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 3

  27. B9

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 2

  28. B9

    Singleton grounded out to second, Trammell to third.

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 15·HOU 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

15

Runs

3

16

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

37

TB

11

6

HR

1

6

BB

2

12

K

8

14

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.4%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    66.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.2%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.4%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    98
    14(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 92
    94
    14(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 89
    204
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 88
    205
    16(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 88
    46
    12(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 88
    97
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs