• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1KC
KC

KC

68-65

5
4
CHW

CHW

48-84

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,907 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 5 · CHW 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000000235
CHW0100030004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Kyle Isbel

Kyle Isbel

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Kyle Teel

Kyle Teel

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC68-65
5
4
CHW48-84
KC68-65·CHW48-84
KC

KC

68-65

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-55012000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-55010002
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44110000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-22000001
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-44220001
SPRINT27.765
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-22000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33110002
T. TolbertT. Tolbert★2B
0-11000000
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
1-22110000
SPRINT2744
M. MasseyM. Massey2B
1-22012000
SPRINT26.838
K. IsbelK. IsbelCF
1-11011010
Team9-3535595018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
5.0744161
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0100020
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000010
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0100000
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000020
Team9.09441111
CHW

CHW

48-84

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-44120000
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
0-33100011
K. TeelK. Teel★C
3-44031001
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT26.326
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-11000000
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44010001
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-44000003
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-33110001
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-22000002
E. QueroE. QueroC
0-11000001
Team9-34344931111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. PerezM. Perez★SP
7.0100050
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
0.2222100
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
0.2433020
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
0.2000010
Team9.0955180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Lorenzen
    78 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      31%·92.6 mph·8% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      8%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Long
    19 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      47%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·78.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      7%·90.1 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • M. Perez
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      33%·90.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      28%·83.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      12%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    26 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      77%·96.2 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      20%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • ST
      57%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 6KCKC2@CHWCHW7
Jun 7KCKC1@CHWCHW4
Jun 8KCKC7@CHWCHW5
Aug 25KCKC0@CHWCHW7
Aug 26KCKC5@CHWCHW4today
Aug 27KCKC12@CHWCHW1

Season series

KC leads series 9-3

May 5CHWCHW0@KCKC3
May 6CHWCHW3@KCKC4
May 7CHWCHW1@KCKC2
May 8CHWCHW0@KCKC10
Jun 6KCKC2@CHWCHW7
Jun 7KCKC1@CHWCHW4
Jun 8KCKC7@CHWCHW5
Aug 16CHWCHW1@KCKC3
Aug 16CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 17CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 25KCKC0@CHWCHW7
Aug 26KCKC5@CHWCHW4today
Aug 27KCKC12@CHWCHW1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 42pp · Top 9th Inning

KCKC
K. Isbel

K. Isbel

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

CHWCHW
K. Teel

K. Teel

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

M. Perez

M. Perez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

KC beat CHW 5-4. Massey's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Montgomery · homered to left (361 feet).

CHWTop 4th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 73% WP

Pasquantino · grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second.

KCTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+42pp→ 66% WP

Massey · singled to right, Pasquantino scored and Yastrzemski scored, India to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000000235
CHW0100030004

Period scoring

KC won 2 · CHW won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Montgomery 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Teel 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Garcia 2

3
0

Inn 9

Massey 2

KC
CHW

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 5·CHW 4

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  3. B9

    Mead struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  10. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Curtis Mead

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  11. B9

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  12. B9

    Benintendi grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

    −6pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  18. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  19. B9

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  20. B9

    Quero struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

    −9pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  26. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Edgar Quero

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  27. B9

    Estévez relieved Long

    ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  28. B9

    Quero hit for M. Taylor

    · ·

    KC 5·CHW 4

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 5·CHW 4

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 5·CHW 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

4

9

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

9

TB

12

0

HR

1

1

BB

1

8

K

11

12

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Randal GrichukCHW
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    44.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.9%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    54
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 94
    70
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 94
    257
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    712
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 94
    258
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs