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FINAL+7CHW
KC

KC

67-65

0
7
CHW

CHW

48-83

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
10,444 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

KC 0 · CHW 7 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
CHW300300107

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Kansas City Royals, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Korey Lee

Korey Lee

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC67-65
0
7
CHW48-83
KC67-65·CHW48-83
KC

KC

67-65

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-22010010
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33000000
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000002
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-33000001
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000001
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-22000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000000
R. GrichukR. GrichukRF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.735
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-11000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11000000
Team2-2929020014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
5.0866002
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0311000
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0000110
Team8.01177112
CHW

CHW

48-83

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110000
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.381
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44111000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-44122000
SPRINT26.941
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-44000000
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
2-44121000
SPRINT26.838
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-44000001
K. LeeK. Lee★C
2-33122110
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-44111100
Team11-35357117211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. SmithS. Smith★SP
7.0100130
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
2.0100010
Team9.0200140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • N. Cameron
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      33%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·80.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      16%·78.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    34 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      32%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      21%·83.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·74.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      13%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·84.1 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Smith
    80 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      54%·95.9 mph·19% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      36%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·90.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

11

0

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Jun 6KCKC2@CHWCHW7
Jun 7KCKC1@CHWCHW4
Jun 8KCKC7@CHWCHW5
Aug 25KCKC0@CHWCHW7today
Aug 26KCKC5@CHWCHW4
Aug 27KCKC12@CHWCHW1

Season series

KC leads series 8-3

May 5CHWCHW0@KCKC3
May 6CHWCHW3@KCKC4
May 7CHWCHW1@KCKC2
May 8CHWCHW0@KCKC10
Jun 6KCKC2@CHWCHW7
Jun 7KCKC1@CHWCHW4
Jun 8KCKC7@CHWCHW5
Aug 16CHWCHW1@KCKC3
Aug 16CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 17CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 25KCKC0@CHWCHW7today
Aug 26KCKC5@CHWCHW4
Aug 27KCKC12@CHWCHW1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 H

CHWCHW
K. Lee

K. Lee

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Smith

S. Smith

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHW beat KC 7-0.

Win probability

CHW vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 67% WP

Quero · doubled to left, Meidroth scored.

CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 81% WP

Mead · doubled to center, Sosa scored.

CHWBottom 4th Inning · 0-5
+8pp→ 95% WP

Lee · homered to left (392 feet), Mead scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
CHW30030010—7

Period scoring

KC won 0 · CHW won 3

0
3

Inn 1

Quero 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Sosa 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
CHW

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  2. T9

    Pasquantino popped out to pitcher.

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  5. T9

    Tyler Gilbert pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  6. T9

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  7. T9

    Witt Jr. doubled to left.

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  12. T9

    Tyler Gilbert pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  13. T9

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  14. T9

    Grichuk fouled out to catcher.

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  16. T9

    Tyler Gilbert pitches to Randal Grichuk

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  17. T9

    Grichuk hit for Yastrzemski

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  18. T9

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  19. T9

    Tolbert flied out to right.

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  24. T9

    Tyler Gilbert pitches to Tyler Tolbert

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  25. T9

    Tolbert hit for Isbel

    ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 0·CHW 7

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 0·CHW 7

  28. B8

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  29. B8

    Baldwin flied out to center.

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·CHW 7

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

0

Runs

7

2

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

4

TB

22

0

HR

2

1

BB

1

4

K

1

4

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

CHW vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium
  • Randal GrichukCHW
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    42.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.7%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.1%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    54
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    171
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 95
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    75
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 93
    285
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs