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FINAL+5WSH
CIN

CIN

52-50

1
6
WSH

WSH

41-60

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
29,071 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

CIN 1 · WSH 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0001000001
WSH000123006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Cincinnati Reds, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Gavin Lux

Gavin Lux

LF

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN52-50
1
6
WSH41-60
CIN52-50·WSH41-60
CIN

CIN

52-50

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-44000001
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
4-44041000
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000000
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-22000000
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-33010000
S. EspinalS. Espinal3B
0-11000000
Team10-33331101005
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
5.27652101
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
0.1000000
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000010
L. RichardsonL. RichardsonRP
1.0000000
Team8.07652111
WSH

WSH

41-60

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000002
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33111111
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44110002
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-33110011
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-44210001
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
0-44000002
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-33012001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-22111000
SPRINT29.496
Team7-31316751211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
4.0611010
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
2.0000030
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0100000
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0200010
A. LaraA. LaraSP
1.0100000
Team9.01011050

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Burns
    98 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      46%·98.4 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      39%·90.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      2%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Richardson
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Barlow
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·77.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·77.5 mph·25% whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    50 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.6 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      26%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.2 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.8 mph·25% whiff
  • A. Chafin
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      56%·80.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      32%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      67%·95.4 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      24%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • L. Garcia
    10 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      60%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      10%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Lara
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

1

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jul 21CINCIN8@WSHWSH10
Jul 22CINCIN1@WSHWSH6today
Jul 23CINCIN5@WSHWSH0

Season series

WSH leads series 4-1

May 2WSHWSH1@CINCIN6
May 3WSHWSH11@CINCIN6
May 4WSHWSH4@CINCIN1
Jul 21CINCIN8@WSHWSH10
Jul 22CINCIN1@WSHWSH6today
Jul 23CINCIN5@WSHWSH0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

CINCIN
G. Lux

G. Lux

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 2.000 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.2 IP · 10 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 6 H

How it ended

WSH beat CIN 6-1.

Win probability

WSH vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 54% WP

Bell · homered to right (388 feet).

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 67% WP

Young · doubled to center, House scored.

WSHBottom 6th Inning · 1-6
+15pp→ 97% WP

Adams · singled to right, García Jr. scored, Lowe scored and House scored on fielding error by catcher Stephenson, Adams to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0001000001
WSH00012300—6

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · WSH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Lux 1

Bell 1

0
2

Inn 5

Young 1

0
3

Inn 6

Adams 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CIN
WSH

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  2. T9

    Stephenson flied out to left.

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  6. T9

    Andry Lara pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  7. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  8. T9

    Steer flied out to left.

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  12. T9

    Andry Lara pitches to Spencer Steer

    · ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  13. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  14. T9

    Lux singled to center.

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  16. T9

    Andry Lara pitches to Gavin Lux

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  17. T9

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  18. T9

    Hays grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  20. T9

    Andry Lara pitches to Austin Hays

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  21. T9

    Lara relieved Chafin

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  24. B8

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  25. B8

    Lile grounded out to first.

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 1·WSH 6

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

1

Runs

6

10

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

11

TB

13

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

5

K

11

13

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

WSH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    43.6%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    43.6%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 20, 25sim 97
    258
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 95
    175
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 95
    70
    4(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 94
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 93
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    53
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs