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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3PIT
TOR

TOR

73-53

2
5
PIT

PIT

53-73

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
17,477 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TOR 2 · PIT 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0020000002
PIT011000125

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 98
    162
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 95
    164
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    141
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    147
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 94
    224
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 93
    166
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 18·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Toronto Blue Jays, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR73-53
2
5
PIT53-73
TOR73-53·PIT53-73
TOR

TOR

73-53

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44110000
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-33110010
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-22001001
SPRINT26.123
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000003
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT27.354
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-22010000
T. HeinemanT. Heineman★C
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
1-33010002
T. FranceT. France1B
0-22000001
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-22000001
Team6-32322620111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.0522240
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
1.1111120
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.1000210
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.1020110
Team8.0653680
PIT

PIT

53-73

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-33120000
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-33010011
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44001002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.586
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000010
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-11100030
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
1-44111002
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-33111001
SPRINT27.765
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-33000000
Team6-2828563068
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. SkenesP. Skenes★SP
6.0522180
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0000020
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
1.0100000
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000010
Team9.06221110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • K. Gausman
    96 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.3 mph·6% whiff
    • FS
      40%·84.0 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      10%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      48%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      65%·86.6 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      64%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      36%·87.2 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.9 mph·32% whiff
    • SI
      18%·97.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      31%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·90.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·99.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      31%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Santana
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      38%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

2

Runs

5

3

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 18TORTOR2@PITPIT5today
Aug 19TORTOR7@PITPIT3
Aug 20TORTOR1@PITPIT2

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Aug 18TORTOR2@PITPIT5today
Aug 19TORTOR7@PITPIT3
Aug 20TORTOR1@PITPIT2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 8th Inning

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat TOR 5-2. Barger's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

PIT vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 74% WP

Canario · singled to center, N. Gonzales scored, Triolo to third.

PITBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 77% WP

Peguero · walked.

PITTop 8th Inning · 2-3
+21pp→ 81% WP

Barger · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Springer out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0020000002
PIT01100012—5

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · PIT won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Canario 1

2
1

Inn 3

Jr. 1

Reynolds 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Peguero 1

0
2

Inn 8

Davis 2

0

Inn 9

TOR
PIT

Play-by-play · 557 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  2. T9

    Schneider lined out to third.

    · ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  4. T9

    Clement to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  5. T9

    Clement to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  7. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Davis Schneider

    · ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  8. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  9. T9

    Clement hit by pitch.

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

    −0.7pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  12. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  13. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  14. T9

    Varsho struck out swinging.

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

    +0.9pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  18. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Daulton Varsho

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  19. T9

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  20. T9

    Bichette grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  22. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  23. T9

    Santana relieved Nicolas

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  26. B8

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  27. B8

    Kiner-Falefa popped out to second.

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 2·PIT 5

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

2

Runs

5

6

Hits

6

3

Errors

0

7

TB

8

0

HR

0

1

BB

6

11

K

8

8

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    40.4%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.3%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.6%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.