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FINAL+3SF
CHC

CHC

76-56

2
5
SF

SF

64-68

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
35,060 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

CHC

league avg

SF

SF

.725

OPS

.715

.726

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.308

4.60

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.13

4.27

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.58

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CHC 2 · SF 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0001100002
SF010022005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 56-31
61%Last 30 · 297-190
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/SeriesSF wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Chicago Cubs, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. BoydCHC−68.5pp
  2. 2H. RamosSF+31.4pp
  3. 3W. FloresSF+30.6pp

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. Busch1B
.2613000000
K. TuckerRF
.2624010002
S. SuzukiRF
.2443010010
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF
.2564120001
C. KellyC
.2614011001
I. HappLF
.2274110002
N. Hoerner2B
.2884000000
D. SwansonSS
.2463010010
M. ShawRF
.2303011001
- J. Turner1B
.2171000001
- O. CaissieRF
.2501000001
- W. Castro2B
.2361000001
Team352820210

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. BoydSP
5.16553892
D. PomeranzRP
0.2000008
T. RogersRP
1.01000215
J. WicksRP
1.0000007
Team8.0755310122

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosLF
.2643131010
R. Devers1B
.2524011001
W. AdamesSS
.2234000003
C. SchmittDH
.2404000002
W. Flores1B
.2453211111
M. Chapman3B
.2283112110
L. MatosRF
.2123110000
P. BaileyC
.2093000001
D. GilbertCF
.0973000002
Team305752310

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. VerlanderSP
6.072225101
J. LucchesiRP
1.10000219
J. ButtoRP
0.2000017
R. WalkerRP
1.01000218
Team9.0822210145

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • T. Rogers
    22 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      59%·92.3 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      41%·77.8 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Wicks
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • CH
      40%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      40%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.0 mph·0% whiff

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

2

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 3-0

Aug 27CHCCHC2@SFSF5today
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF12
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF4

Season series

SF leads series 3-1

May 5SFSF2@CHCCHC9
May 6SFSF14@CHCCHC5
May 7SFSF3@CHCCHC1
Aug 27CHCCHC2@SFSF5today
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF12
Aug 28CHCCHC3@SFSF4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat CHC 5-2.

Win probability

SF vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 61% WP

Shaw · singled to left, Happ scored, Swanson to third.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 2-2
+17pp→ 50% WP

Ramos · doubled to left, Matos scored.

SFBottom 6th Inning · 2-5
+17pp→ 90% WP

Chapman · homered to left center (400 feet), Flores scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0001100002
SF01002200—5

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · SF won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Flores 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Shaw 1

1
2

Inn 5

Kelly 1

Ramos 1

0
2

Inn 6

Chapman 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
SF

Play-by-play · 524 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  2. T9

    Caissie struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  9. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Owen Caissie

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  10. T9

    Caissie hit for Turner

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  11. T9

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  12. T9

    Castro struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  18. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Willi Castro

    · ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  19. T9

    Castro hit for Shaw

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  20. T9

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  21. T9

    Swanson singled to center.

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

    −2pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  24. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  25. T9

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  26. T9

    Hoerner grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

    +2pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 2·SF 5

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

SF

Home

2

Runs

5

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

10

TB

15

0

HR

2

2

BB

3

10

K

10

10

LOB

10

Player projections

SF vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.1low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.3± 3.7low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.3± 2.0low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.7± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.5± 0.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.5± 3.7high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Edward CabreraCHC
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    3.2± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    40.8%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    40.0%

    P(SF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    42.2%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872