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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SF
SF

SF

61-64

4
3
SD

SD

69-56

Petco Park · San Diego, California
42,730 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 4 · SD 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF4000000004
SD0000003003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 99
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 97
    261
    25(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 97
    43
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 97
    233
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 95
    115
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 18·Final/SeriesSD wins series 5-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Wilmer Flores

Wilmer Flores

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF61-64
4
3
SD69-56
SF61-64·SD69-56
SF

SF

61-64

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-55121103
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44111111
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-55010002
SPRINT27.457
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44110011
SPRINT2872
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
1-33112111
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44010000
C. KossC. Koss★2B
0-44000000
T. FitzgeraldT. Fitzgerald★2B
1-33010011
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-22000021
Team8-34344843610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
6.2330161
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.1200010
R. RodríguezR. RodríguezRP
1.0100000
Team9.0630171
SD

SD

69-56

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-44000000
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-44010003
SPRINT24.32
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT27.148
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
1-33110010
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-44000002
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-11000000
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
0-22000000
R. O'HearnR. O'HearnRF
1-22112100
SPRINT26.735
G. SheetsG. Sheets1B
1-11010000
Team6-3333362117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CortesN. Cortes★SP
5.2744453
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.1000130
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
1.0000110
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0100010
Team9.08446103

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

4

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 5-1

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3today
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8

Season series

SD leads series 7-3

Apr 30SFSF4@SDSD7
Apr 30SFSF3@SDSD5
Jun 3SDSD1@SFSF0
Jun 4SDSD3@SFSF2
Jun 5SDSD5@SFSF6
Jun 5SDSD2@SFSF3
Aug 12SDSD4@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD5@SFSF1
Aug 13SDSD11@SFSF1
Aug 19SFSF4@SDSD3today
Aug 20SFSF1@SDSD5
Aug 21SFSF1@SDSD8
Aug 21SFSF4@SDSD8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 9th Inning

SFSF
W. Flores

W. Flores

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

SDSD
R. O'Hearn

R. O'Hearn

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

N. Cortes

N. Cortes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SF beat SD 4-3. Ramos's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDBottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+17pp→ 26% WP

O'Hearn · homered to center (417 feet), Iglesias scored.

SDBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+13pp→ 40% WP

Arraez · singled to center.

SFTop 9th Inning · 4-3
+18pp→ 89% WP

Ramos · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF4000000004
SD0000003003

Period scoring

SF won 1 · SD won 1

4
0

Inn 1

Flores 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

O'Hearn 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SF
SD

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 4·SD 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  3. B9

    O'Hearn flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  11. B9

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  12. B9

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  13. B9

    Fermin popped out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

    −10pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  18. B9

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Freddy Fermin

    · ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  19. B9

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  20. B9

    Iglesias singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

    +9pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

  30. B9

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Jose Iglesias

    ·

    SF 4·SD 3

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

3

8

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

18

TB

10

3

HR

1

6

BB

1

10

K

7

20

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    63.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.3%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.