MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ATL

ATL

45-60

107

52-55

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

23,850 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
60.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.7%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low
Bryce ElderATL
4.9± 3.4low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Matt OlsonATL
1.2± 0.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.7high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.9± 2.1high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low
Grant HolmesATL
2.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

.744

OPS

◀

.717

.694

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.316

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.44

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 10 · KC 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	4	1	10
KC	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.245	5	1	2	1	0	1	1
M. Olson1B	.262	5	2	1	1	0	1	1
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.309	4	2	2	2	1	2	0
A. Riley3B	.268	6	1	2	4	1	0	0
S. MurphyC	.230	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
O. Albies2B	.218	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
M. OzunaDH	.233	3	1	1	2	1	2	0
M. Harris IICF	.226	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. AllenSS	.228	3	2	1	0	0	2	1
Team		35	10	9	10	3	14	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.245

.262

.309

.268

.230

.218

.233

.226

.228

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. StriderSP	5.0	7	2	2	2	3	96
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
D. HernandezRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	25
D. LeeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
R. MonteroRP	0.0	2	3	3	2	0	14
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	12	7	7	4	5	165

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

Team

9.0

165

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. India2B	.240	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.289	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.264	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. Garcia3B	.301	4	2	3	1	0	1	0
S. PerezC	.254	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. GrichukRF	.333	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.068	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. IsbelCF	.249	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. FerminC	.263	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
Team		38	7	12	7	1	4	5

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. HillSP	4.0	3	4	4	6	3	81
T. ClarkeRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	22
S. LongRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	30
S. CruzRP	1.1	3	4	4	4	0	32
J. BowlanRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	15
Team	9.0	9	10	10	14	4	180

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.