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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CHW
CHW

CHW

37-66

11
9
TB

TB

53-50

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 11 · TB 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW04000106011
TB4000210209

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 31, 25sim 95
    1512
    17(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 90
    1510
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 90
    205
    10(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 89
    48
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 89
    208
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 88
    43
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 23·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 11–9.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Kyle Teel

Kyle Teel

C

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW37-66
11
9
TB53-50
CHW37-66·TB53-50
CHW

CHW

37-66

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-55011001
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-55011001
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
0-33100020
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-55220001
SPRINT28.381
K. TeelK. Teel★C
4-55342100
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44211011
SPRINT2993
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
2-55225101
SPRINT26.326
J. RojasJ. Rojas★3B
0-44000010
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
0-33100011
Team11-3939111110256
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CannonJ. Cannon★SP
4.1765192
B. EisertB. EisertRP
0.2211010
G. TaylorG. TaylorRP
1.0100110
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0200010
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
0.1222010
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
0.2000100
D. AltavillaD. AltavillaRP
1.0100200
Team9.015985132
TB

TB

53-50

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-55330010
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44112102
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-44221011
SPRINT25.29
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44123100
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-44021002
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-55020002
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-44000013
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
1-44110012
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
2-44121011
SPRINT28.278
C. MorelC. Morel1B
0-11000000
Team15-393991582513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
1.2444301
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
1.1000030
J. BoyleJ. BoyleSP
3.0111011
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000020
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1465200
I. SeymourI. SeymourRP
1.2200000
Team9.0111110562

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • J. Cannon
    90 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      34%·93.8 mph·35% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.2 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.1 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.2 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.2 mph·17% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      63%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      41%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      12%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·88.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      47%·83.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Leasure
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      64%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      25%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      17%·94.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      40%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      20%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·88.4 mph·— whiff

TB

  • T. Bradley
    55 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.1 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      36%·89.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      13%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Boyle
    39 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      49%·98.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      26%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·90.5 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    27 pitches·7% CSW
    • SI
      67%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • I. Seymour
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      25%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Englert
    14 pitches·57% CSW
    • CH
      50%·86.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      14%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·75.0 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      36%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.6 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

15

11

Runs

9

1

Errors

1

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9today

Season series

CHW lead series 2-1

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9today
Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 8th Inning

CHWCHW
K. Teel

K. Teel

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

J. Cannon

J. Cannon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 9 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Boyle

J. Boyle

SP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it ended

CHW beat TB 11-9. Montgomery's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 2nd Inning · 4-4
+17pp→ 37% WP

Montgomery · homered to center (414 feet), Teel scored and Robert Jr. scored.

CHWTop 6th Inning · 5-6
+17pp→ 24% WP

Teel · homered to right (336 feet).

CHWTop 8th Inning · 8-7
+33pp→ 85% WP

Montgomery · doubled to center, Vargas scored and Teel scored, Robert Jr. to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW04000106011
TB4000210209

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

TB

Home

11

Runs

9

11

Hits

15

1

Errors

1

18

TB

24

2

HR

2

5

BB

5

6

K

13

17

LOB

24

Win probability

TB vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CHW won 2 · TB won 2

0
4

Inn 1

Caminero 2

4
0

Inn 2

Montgomery 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Lowe 1

1
1

Inn 6

Teel 1

Caballero 1

0
0

Inn 7

6
2

Inn 8

Montgomery 2

Aranda 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
TB

Play-by-play · 676 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 11·TB 9

  2. B9

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  3. B9

    Simpson lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

    −9pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  5. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Chandler Simpson

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  6. B9

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  7. B9

    Caballero walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

    +6pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  10. B9

    Jansen to third on wild pitch by Altavilla.

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  11. B9

    Jansen to third on wild pitch by Altavilla.

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  17. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Jose Caballero

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  18. B9

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  19. B9

    Walls grounded out to second, Jansen to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

    −6pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  21. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Taylor Walls

    · ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  22. B9

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  23. B9

    Jansen walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

    +6pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  29. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Danny Jansen

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

  30. B9

    ·

    CHW 11·TB 9

Player projections

TB vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.2± 2.5low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.9± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    63.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.1%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381