MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

56-68

CLE

63-60

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

28,899 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.3%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 0.9high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.1± 0.6high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.1± 2.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.9± 2.0high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
0.6± 1.0high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
2.8± 2.5low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.5± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

CLE

.744

OPS

◀

.717

.689

.320

OBP

.319

.317

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.75

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 5 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	5
CLE	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ProfarLF	.246	4	1	2	2	1	1	0
M. Olson1B	.264	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.303	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
M. OzunaDH	.236	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Harris IICF	.253	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
O. Albies2B	.226	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
S. MurphyC	.207	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.229	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.231	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team		38	5	10	4	1	4	12

Player

.246

.264

.303

.236

.253

.226

.207

.229

.231

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. FeddeSP	4.0	6	4	4	3	5	92
A. BummerRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	27
D. LeeRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	24
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	0	13
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	10	4	4	6	10	173

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

173

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.281	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.228	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.291	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. Manzardo1B	.238	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
B. NaylorC	.184	5	0	4	1	0	0	1
B. RocchioSS	.235	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. KayfusLF	.209	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. JonesRF	.212	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
A. MartinezLF	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. FryRF	.178	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.230	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	10	4	0	6	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AllenRP	4.2	5	3	1	3	6	107
N. EnrightRP	1.1	4	2	2	0	3	34
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
H. GaddisRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	22
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	10	5	3	4	12	188

Team

ATL

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.