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FINAL+2BOS
LAD

LAD

61-44

2
4
BOS

BOS

56-50

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,687 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

LAD 2 · BOS 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD2000000002
BOS030010004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Teoscar Hernandez

Teoscar Hernandez

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Roman Anthony

Roman Anthony

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD61-44
2
4
BOS56-50
LAD61-44·BOS56-50
LAD

LAD

61-44

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44111103
SPRINT2744
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33010012
SPRINT2744
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33111111
SPRINT28.381
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT24.74
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010002
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
1-44010001
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-44010001
E. RuizE. Ruiz★RF
0-33000011
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-33020001
SPRINT28.381
M. BettsM. BettsSS
0-11000001
Team9-33332922315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. KershawC. Kershaw★SP
4.2644220
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
0.1000000
A. DiazA. DiazRP
1.0100010
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0200110
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0100010
Team8.01044350
BOS

BOS

56-50

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT26.326
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
3-44130000
SPRINT25.818
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-22021020
SPRINT27.457
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-33000000
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-33100012
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44110001
SPRINT257
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
3-44132000
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000001
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
0-22001001
W. AbreuW. AbreuRF
0-11000000
Team10-31314104035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.08222102
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.0100020
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000020
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000110
Team9.09223152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • C. Kershaw
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      38%·85.3 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      34%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·72.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      10%·83.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      1%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Klein
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      57%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Diaz
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·87.4 mph·17% whiff
  • K. Yates
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      71%·93.1 mph·11% whiff
    • FS
      29%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      100%·96.5 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    100 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.8 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      30%·90.3 mph·53% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.0 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·99.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • SL
      54%·88.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      46%·94.7 mph·67% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    10 pitches·70% CSW
    • SL
      60%·84.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jul 25LADLAD5@BOSBOS2
Jul 26LADLAD2@BOSBOS4today
Jul 27LADLAD3@BOSBOS4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 25LADLAD5@BOSBOS2
Jul 26LADLAD2@BOSBOS4today
Jul 27LADLAD3@BOSBOS4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

LADLAD
T. Hernández

T. Hernández

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
R. Anthony

R. Anthony

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BOS beat LAD 4-2.

Win probability

BOS vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 57% WP

T. Hern · ández homered to left (390 feet).

BOSBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+15pp→ 71% WP

Duran · tripled to center, Story scored and Narváez scored.

BOSBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+11pp→ 83% WP

Anthony · doubled to left, Bregman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD2000000002
BOS03001000—4

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · BOS won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Hern 1

0
3

Inn 2

Duran 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Anthony 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
BOS

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  2. T9

    Betts struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  10. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  11. T9

    Betts hit for Kim

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  12. T9

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  13. T9

    Ruiz walked.

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

    −2pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  19. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Esteury Ruiz

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  20. T9

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  21. T9

    Rojas flied out to right.

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

    +2pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  26. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Miguel Rojas

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  27. T9

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  28. T9

    Edman flied out to center.

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

    +4pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

  30. T9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Tommy Edman

    ·

    LAD 2·BOS 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

2

Runs

4

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

15

TB

17

2

HR

0

3

BB

3

15

K

5

12

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.6%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 98
    21
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 97
    22
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 97
    193
    2(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 96
    195
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    250
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 95
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs