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FINAL+4KC
CHW

CHW

44-79

2
6
KC

KC

62-61

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
28,355 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CHW 2 · KC 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0000000202
KC111021006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 16·Final/SeriesKC wins series 7-0

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Chicago White Sox, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHW · top performer

CHW
Brooks Baldwin

Brooks Baldwin

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
J

John Rave

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHW44-79
2
6
KC62-61
CHW44-79·KC62-61
CHW

CHW

44-79

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-44000011
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT26.326
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT2993
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44012000
SPRINT26.632
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
K. TeelK. Teel★C
0-33000002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44010001
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-11010000
M. TaylorM. TaylorRF
0-22000000
E. QueroE. QueroC
1-11010000
Team8-3333282037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
3.2532132
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
2.1533140
M. VasilM. VasilRP
2.0000130
Team8.010653102
KC

KC

62-61

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-33211110
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010003
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-11000001
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44012000
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-44110001
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
2-33120010
SPRINT26.735
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
2-33021011
SPRINT2872
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000002
JJ. RaveRF
2-33221101
Team10-323261052310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
4.0300230
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0100000
B. FalterB. FalterRP
2.0322120
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100020
Team9.0822370

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Burke
    85 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.3 mph·9% whiff
    • KC
      27%·79.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    51 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      37%·80.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      33%·91.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      33%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.2 mph·— whiff

KC

  • M. Lorenzen
    82 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      23%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      16%·83.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      12%·83.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Falter
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.0 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      16%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      13%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    30 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      33%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      30%·87.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      30%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 7-0

May 5CHWCHW0@KCKC3
May 6CHWCHW3@KCKC4
May 7CHWCHW1@KCKC2
May 8CHWCHW0@KCKC10
Aug 16CHWCHW1@KCKC3
Aug 16CHWCHW2@KCKC6today
Aug 17CHWCHW2@KCKC6

Season series

KC leads series 7-2

May 5CHWCHW0@KCKC3
May 6CHWCHW3@KCKC4
May 7CHWCHW1@KCKC2
May 8CHWCHW0@KCKC10
Jun 6KCKC2@CHWCHW7
Jun 7KCKC1@CHWCHW4
Jun 8KCKC7@CHWCHW5
Aug 16CHWCHW1@KCKC3
Aug 16CHWCHW2@KCKC6today
Aug 17CHWCHW2@KCKC6
Aug 25KCKC0@CHWCHW7
Aug 26KCKC5@CHWCHW4
Aug 27KCKC12@CHWCHW1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CHWCHW
B. Baldwin

B. Baldwin

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

KCKC

J. Rave

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat CHW 6-2. Yastrzemski's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

KC vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+20pp→ 65% WP

Yastrzemski · homered to right center (408 feet).

KCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 79% WP

Isbel · reached on a fielder's choice to pitcher, Grichuk scored on throwing error by pitcher Burke, Loftin safe at second error.

KCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+7pp→ 84% WP

Rave · homered to right center (407 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0000000202
KC11102100—6

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · KC won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Yastrzemski 1

0
1

Inn 2

Isbel 1

0
1

Inn 3

Rave 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Garcia 2

0
1

Inn 6

Loftin 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Benintendi 2

0

Inn 9

CHW
KC

Play-by-play · 594 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  2. T9

    Tauchman struck out looking.

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  7. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Mike Tauchman

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  8. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  9. T9

    Quero singled to center.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  13. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Edgar Quero

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  14. T9

    Quero hit for M. Taylor

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  15. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  16. T9

    Meidroth flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  22. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Chase Meidroth

    · ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  23. T9

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  24. T9

    Teel struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

    +0.8pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 2·KC 6

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

6

8

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

10

TB

18

0

HR

2

3

BB

3

7

K

10

14

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Munetaka MurakamiCHW
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    62.3%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 98
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    43
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 94
    204
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    41
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 93
    154
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 93
    112
    13(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs