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FINAL+6WSH
WSH

WSH

42-62

9
3
MIN

MIN

50-54

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
26,928 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 9 · MIN 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0011301309
MIN0000020103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 11, 25sim 94
    204
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 93
    207
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 92
    205
    7(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 91
    208
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 91
    156
    7(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 91
    46
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Mickey Gasper

Mickey Gasper

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH42-62
9
3
MIN50-54
WSH42-62·MIN50-54
WSH

WSH

42-62

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-55013001
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000013
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-55221100
SPRINT26.735
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-55111003
SPRINT25.18
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33110011
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-44000001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44120000
D. MillasD. Millas★C
3-44230000
SPRINT27.354
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-00000000
A. CallA. CallLF
2-44223100
SPRINT27.765
Team12-38389128229
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ParkerM. Parker★RP
5.2822140
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.1100000
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0111120
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0200010
Team9.01233270
MIN

MIN

50-54

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-33000000
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55010001
SPRINT27.251
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-33210010
SPRINT27.969
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
2-44121001
SPRINT27.251
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010003
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-33001001
T. FranceT. France★1B
3-44031001
SPRINT24.74
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT26.428
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
1-22010010
T. LarnachT. LarnachLF
0-22000000
M. GasperM. GasperC
1-11010000
Team12-35353123027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
5.0654151
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
2.0211021
K. FunderburkK. FunderburkRP
2.0433120
Team9.01298292

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • M. Parker
    99 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.8 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      3%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      39%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chafin
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      44%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      44%·81.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      11%·90.6 mph·— whiff
  • L. Garcia
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      55%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      45%·91.2 mph·33% whiff

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    87 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.0 mph·28% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·13% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      7%·79.4 mph·67% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    39 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      28%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Topa
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      30%·84.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      19%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

12

9

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Jul 26WSHWSH0@MINMIN1
Jul 26WSHWSH9@MINMIN3today
Jul 27WSHWSH7@MINMIN2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 26WSHWSH0@MINMIN1
Jul 26WSHWSH9@MINMIN3today
Jul 27WSHWSH7@MINMIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 4th Inning

WSHWSH
A. Call

A. Call

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

M. Parker

M. Parker

RP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
M. Gasper

M. Gasper

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat MIN 9-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 49% WP

Call · singled to left, Millas scored.

WSHTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 59% WP

Garc · ía Jr. homered to right center (390 feet).

WSHTop 5th Inning · 5-0
+12pp→ 94% WP

Abrams · doubled to right, Call scored, Lile scored and Millas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0011301309
MIN0000020103

Period scoring

WSH won 5 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Call 1

1
0

Inn 4

Garc 1

3
0

Inn 5

Abrams 3

0
2

Inn 6

Lewis 1

1
0

Inn 7

Call 1

3
1

Inn 8

Bell 1

Wallner 1

0
0

Inn 9

WSH
MIN

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  3. B9

    Correa struck out swinging.

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  10. B9

    Andrew Chafin pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  11. B9

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  12. B9

    Larnach grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Gasper out at second, Lee to third.

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

    −2pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  18. B9

    Andrew Chafin pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  19. B9

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  20. B9

    Gasper singled to left, Lee to second.

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

    +1pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  25. B9

    Andrew Chafin pitches to Mickey Gasper

    · ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  26. B9

    ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  27. B9

    Lee reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

    +0.5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 9·MIN 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

9

Runs

3

12

Hits

12

0

Errors

1

20

TB

16

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

9

K

7

17

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.1%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.46 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.