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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

72-60

4
3
BAL

BAL

60-71

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
15,740 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 4 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS1000300004
BAL0120000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 22, 25sim 99
    145
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 98
    27
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    144
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    45.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

CF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS72-60
4
3
BAL60-71
BOS72-60·BAL60-71
BOS

BOS

72-60

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-44221102
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33113110
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000001
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-44000002
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-33020010
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000003
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
0-44000002
C. WongC. Wong★C
2-44120001
SPRINT27.354
Team7-34344742211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BernardinoB. Bernardino★RP
1.0100020
R. FittsR. FittsSP
4.0233361
S. MatzS. MatzSP
2.0200020
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0100030
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000000
Team9.06333131
BAL

BAL

60-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-44000002
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33110011
SPRINT28.175
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
0-33100002
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-33000012
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
3-44133101
SPRINT28.175
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000000
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
1-33010011
L. VazquezL. Vazquez★SS
0-44000002
Team6-32323631313
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
6.0644262
G. WolframG. WolframRP
2.0000020
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0100030
Team9.07442112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • R. Fitts
    68 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·96.1 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.8 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.2 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      45%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Matz
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • SI
      65%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      18%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      50%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      36%·77.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      43%·98.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.6 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • FS
      31%·87.5 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·83.4 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      44%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      36%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      12%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·85.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Martin
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      39%·96.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      39%·92.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      17%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 6-1

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3today
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2

Season series

Series tied 5-5

Mar 31BOSBOS5@BALBAL8
Apr 2BOSBOS3@BALBAL0
Apr 3BOSBOS8@BALBAL4
May 22BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 23BALBAL5@BOSBOS19
May 23BALBAL0@BOSBOS0
May 24BALBAL5@BOSBOS6
May 24BALBAL2@BOSBOS1
May 25BALBAL5@BOSBOS1
Aug 18BALBAL6@BOSBOS3
Aug 19BALBAL4@BOSBOS3
Aug 25BOSBOS4@BALBAL3today
Aug 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL0
Aug 27BOSBOS3@BALBAL2
Aug 28BOSBOS3@BALBAL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 5th Inning

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

R. Fitts

R. Fitts

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BOS beat BAL 4-3. Duran's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+20pp→ 72% WP

Cowser · singled to center, Henderson scored and Mountcastle scored, Mayo to third.

BOSTop 5th Inning · 4-3
+32pp→ 67% WP

Duran · homered to center (407 feet), Wong scored and Anthony scored.

BALBottom 8th Inning · 4-3
+16pp→ 47% WP

Henderson · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS1000300004
BAL0120000003

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · BAL won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Cowser 1

0
2

Inn 3

Cowser 2

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Duran 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
BAL

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  3. B9

    Vázquez flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  6. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Luis Vazquez

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  7. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  8. B9

    Carlson grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

    −6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  13. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Dylan Carlson

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  14. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Basallo flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

    −8pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  17. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Samuel Basallo

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  18. B9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  19. B9

    Garcia as designated hitter.

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  22. T9

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  23. T9

    Wong struck out looking.

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

    +3pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  29. T9

    Corbin Martin pitches to Connor Wong

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

  30. T9

    · ·

    BOS 4·BAL 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

3

7

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

14

TB

11

2

HR

1

2

BB

3

11

K

13

13

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872