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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TOR
TOR

TOR

75-54

5
2
MIA

MIA

60-68

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
14,923 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 5 · MIA 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR3000020005
MIA0100000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 99
    24
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 97
    144
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    27
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    25
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 95
    221
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    26
    11(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesTOR wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Miami Marlins and beat them, 5–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Daulton Varsho

Daulton Varsho

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Javier Sanoja

Javier Sanoja

3B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR75-54
5
2
MIA60-68
TOR75-54·MIA60-68
TOR

TOR

75-54

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
1-44010000
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-33110010
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
1-33210010
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
2-44223100
SPRINT26.838
T. FranceT. France★1B
2-44022000
SPRINT24.74
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
1-22010000
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33000010
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-44000001
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000011
Team9-3232595142
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BieberS. Bieber★SP
6.0211091
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000100
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.2211001
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2000020
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000100
Team9.04222112
MIA

MIA

60-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000002
SPRINT2872
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.765
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-33000002
SPRINT27.354
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
0-33000011
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-44000001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-22000001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
2-44121100
SPRINT28.381
D. HillD. Hill★RF
0-33000001
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-33111101
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
0-11000010
Team4-31312422211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. GustoR. Gusto★SP
6.0855101
J. SimpsonJ. SimpsonRP
1.0100110
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
2.0000210
Team9.0955421

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • S. Bieber
    87 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.7 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.8 mph·41% whiff
    • KC
      15%·82.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.1 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      56%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.5 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • SL
      50%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      43%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      77%·89.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • KC
      56%·87.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.5 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • R. Gusto
    90 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.9 mph·10% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.7 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    27 pitches·7% CSW
    • FC
      37%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      11%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·76.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      25%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      15%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

TOR wins series 2-1

Aug 22TORTOR5@MIAMIA2today
Aug 23TORTOR7@MIAMIA6
Aug 24TORTOR3@MIAMIA5

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Aug 22TORTOR5@MIAMIA2today
Aug 23TORTOR7@MIAMIA6
Aug 24TORTOR3@MIAMIA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 6th Inning

TORTOR
D. Varsho

D. Varsho

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Bieber

S. Bieber

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 2 H

MIAMIA
J. Sanoja

J. Sanoja

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

R. Gusto

R. Gusto

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TOR beat MIA 5-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIA vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 87% WP

Edwards · struck out swinging.

TORTop 6th Inning · 5-1
+13pp→ 93% WP

Varsho · homered to right center (423 feet), Kirk scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR3000020005
MIA0100000102

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · MIA won 2

3
0

Inn 1

France 2

0
1

Inn 2

Sanoja 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Varsho 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Acosta 1

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
MIA

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  3. B9

    Sanoja grounded out to third.

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  9. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Javier Sanoja

    · ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  10. B9

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  11. B9

    Wagaman walked.

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

    +0.7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  20. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Eric Wagaman

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  21. B9

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  22. B9

    Hernández grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

    −1pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  25. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Heriberto Hernandez

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  26. B9

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  27. B9

    Hicks grounded out to second.

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

    −2pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 5·MIA 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

5

Runs

2

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

14

TB

10

1

HR

2

4

BB

2

2

K

11

10

LOB

7

Player projections

MIA vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    4.9± 2.2low

Hits

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    46.0%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.1%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872