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FINAL+8NYM
ATL

ATL

51-68

5
13
NYM

NYM

64-55

Citi Field · Queens, New York
39,748 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

ATL 5 · NYM 13 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL1004000005
NYM0323212013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Atlanta Braves, 13–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Nacho Alvarez Jr.

Nacho Alvarez Jr.

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

3.000OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL51-68
5
13
NYM64-55
ATL51-68·NYM64-55
ATL

ATL

51-68

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-33101020
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-55021002
SPRINT25.513
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-44001000
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000013
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT27.148
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT27.354
V. BrujanV. Brujan★SS
0-22100021
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
2-33122000
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-33000011
S. LeonS. LeonC
0-11000001
Team8-3333585069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
4.0888223
A. CoxA. CoxRP
2.2655123
L. WilliamsL. WilliamsSS
1.1200000
Team8.0161313346
NYM

NYM

64-55

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44110010
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44110010
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55223100
SPRINT28.278
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
3-55333200
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-44000011
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
2-55020001
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
2-55221001
SPRINT27.662
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
3-44334201
SPRINT25.716
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44122100
SPRINT26.735
Team16-4040131613634
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
3.2655540
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.1200000
J. HagenmanJ. HagenmanRP
4.0000150
Team9.0855690

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    82 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·4% whiff
    • SL
      30%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.9 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Cox
    48 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      44%·85.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      21%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • L. Williams
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • EP
      88%·60.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      13%·65.3 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      68%·94.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      2%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Hagenman
    55 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      35%·86.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      22%·83.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      58%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

16

5

Runs

13

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 4-3

Jun 23ATLATL3@NYMNYM2
Jun 24ATLATL7@NYMNYM4
Jun 25ATLATL3@NYMNYM7
Jun 26ATLATL0@NYMNYM4
Aug 12ATLATL5@NYMNYM13today
Aug 13ATLATL11@NYMNYM6
Aug 14ATLATL4@NYMNYM3

Season series

ATL leads series 5-3

Jun 17NYMNYM4@ATLATL5
Jun 18NYMNYM0@ATLATL5
Jun 19NYMNYM1@ATLATL7
Jun 23ATLATL3@NYMNYM2
Jun 24ATLATL7@NYMNYM4
Jun 25ATLATL3@NYMNYM7
Jun 26ATLATL0@NYMNYM4
Aug 12ATLATL5@NYMNYM13today
Aug 13ATLATL11@NYMNYM6
Aug 14ATLATL4@NYMNYM3
Aug 22NYMNYM12@ATLATL7
Aug 23NYMNYM9@ATLATL2
Aug 24NYMNYM3@ATLATL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 4th Inning

ATLATL
N. Alvarez Jr.

N. Alvarez Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.000 OPS

J. Hagenman

J. Hagenman

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat ATL 13-5. Nimmo's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

NYM vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+19pp→ 80% WP

Alvarez · homered to right center (413 feet), Mullins scored.

ATLTop 4th Inning · 5-5
+15pp→ 46% WP

Olson · doubled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored, Profar to third.

NYMBottom 4th Inning · 5-8
+26pp→ 88% WP

Nimmo · homered to right center (387 feet), Lindor scored and J. Soto scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL1004000005
NYM03232120—13

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · NYM won 5

1
0

Inn 1

Baldwin 1

0
3

Inn 2

Alvarez 2

0
2

Inn 3

Alonso 2

4
3

Inn 4

Jr. 2

Nimmo 3

0
2

Inn 5

Alvarez 1

0
1

Inn 6

Alonso 1

0
2

Inn 7

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATL
NYM

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  2. T9

    Ozuna struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  9. T9

    Justin Hagenman pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  10. T9

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  11. T9

    León struck out looking.

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  16. T9

    Justin Hagenman pitches to Sandy Leon

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  17. T9

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  18. T9

    Olson flied out to center.

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  19. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  26. T9

    Justin Hagenman pitches to Matt Olson

    ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  27. T9

    Taylor in right field.

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATL 5·NYM 13

  30. B8

    · ·

    ATL 5·NYM 13

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

5

Runs

13

8

Hits

16

0

Errors

0

11

TB

37

0

HR

6

6

BB

3

9

K

4

19

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

NYM vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    56.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.8%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    1511
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    311
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 93
    1111
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 93
    2112
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 92
    156
    7(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 91
    45
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs