HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5CHW
CHW

CHW

36-65

8
3
TB

TB

52-49

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

CHW

league avg

TB

TB

.737

OPS

◀

.717

.720

.325

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.53

4.29

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.95

1.32

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 8 · TB 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0330200008
TB0002001003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. BazTB−57.3pp
  2. 2C. MontgomeryCHW+33.7pp
  3. 3B. BaldwinCHW+29.6pp

CHW · top performer

CHW
Miguel Vargas

Miguel Vargas

3B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanRF
.2815000003
C. Meidroth2B
.2515140000
A. BenintendiDH
.2344210012
M. Vargas3B
.2233212121
K. TeelC
.2444110002
L. Robert Jr.CF
.2064022000
C. MontgomerySS
.2624111001
L. Sosa2B
.2664000001
B. BaldwinLF
.2264113102
- M. TaylorRF
.2240000000
Team3781182312

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. BurkeSP
4.03204589
T. GilbertRP
0.20001211
S. WilsonRP
1.11001019
B. EisertRP
1.01111119
J. LeasureRP
1.00000114
D. AltavillaRP
1.00000010
Team9.053179162

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.3005000001
Y. DiazDH
.2934111110
J. Aranda1B
.3163010011
J. Caminero3B
.2593010012
J. LoweLF
.2394100001
H. KimSS
.2260000010
C. Morel1B
.2133000012
D. JansenC
.2133010010
T. WallsSS
.2164012001
- J. CaballeroSS
.2182100011
Team31353179

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. BazSP
4.08882487
K. KellyRP
2.01000118
M. EnglertRP
2.01001440
G. CleavingerRP
1.01000318
Team9.01188312163

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • S. Burke
    89 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.6 mph·28% whiff
    • KC
      29%·78.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      1%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Wilson
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      58%·81.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      42%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Eisert
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      47%·82.0 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      32%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·87.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      57%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      43%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      45%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      36%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      30%·96.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      30%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·91.5 mph·— whiff

TB

  • S. Baz
    87 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.8 mph·5% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      22%·85.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Englert
    40 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      43%·87.7 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·90.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      11%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·98.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3today
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9

Season series

CHW lead series 1-0

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3today
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9
Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 2nd Inning

CHWCHW
M. Vargas

M. Vargas

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHW beat TB 8-3. Baldwin's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+30pp→ 70% WP

Baldwin · homered to right center (352 feet), Teel scored and Montgomery scored.

CHWTop 3rd Inning · 5-0
+10pp→ 91% WP

Robert Jr. · singled to left, Benintendi scored and Meidroth scored, Vargas to third.

TBBottom 4th Inning · 6-2
+9pp→ 15% WP

Walls · doubled to right, Caballero scored and J. Lowe scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0330200008
TB0002001003

Period scoring

CHW won 3 · TB won 2

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Baldwin 3

3
0

Inn 3

Jr. 2

0
2

Inn 4

Walls 2

2
0

Inn 5

Vargas 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CHW
TB

Play-by-play · 608 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHW 8·TB 3

  2. B9

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  3. B9

    Díaz grounded out to second.

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  8. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Yandy Diaz

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  9. B9

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  10. B9

    Simpson popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  15. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Chandler Simpson

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  16. B9

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  17. B9

    Walls lined out to right.

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  20. B9

    Dan Altavilla pitches to Taylor Walls

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  21. B9

    Altavilla relieved Leasure

    ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  22. B9

    M. Taylor in right field.

    CHW 8·TB 3

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHW 8·TB 3

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHW 8·TB 3

  25. T9

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  26. T9

    Vargas struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHW 8·TB 3

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

TB

Home

8

Runs

3

11

Hits

5

2

Errors

0

21

TB

9

2

HR

1

3

BB

7

12

K

9

18

LOB

23

Player projections

TB vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    2.3± 3.5low
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Braden MontgomeryCHW
    1.0± 1.9low
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.6± 3.1low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.3%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    64.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.5%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.8%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.