MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

61-55

CHW

42-75

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

17,893 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
44.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.9%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.5%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Davis MartinCHW
6.2± 3.1low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.0± 0.8high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Braden MontgomeryCHW
1.7± 3.0low
Tristan PetersCHW
1.7± 1.9high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
1.6± 2.0high

RBIs

Braden MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.6low
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.7high
Tristan PetersCHW
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.4low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.9low
Joey CantilloCLE
2.5± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

CHW

.685

OPS

.717

▶

.733

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.72

3.73

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.39

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · CHW 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3
CHW	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.280	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.234	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.293	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.241	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
B. NaylorC	.179	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. AriasSS	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. KayfusLF	.304	3	2	1	1	1	1	2
B. RocchioSS	.227	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
N. JonesRF	.215	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinezLF	.236	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Santana1B	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	1	5	11

Player

.280

.234

.293

.241

.179

.234

.304

.227

.215

.236

.229

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CantilloSP	5.2	4	1	1	2	3	82
N. EnrightRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14
H. GaddisRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	18
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	11
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	4	1	1	5	6	135

Player

5.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Sosa2B	.275	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.268	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
L. Robert Jr.CF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mead1B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
K. TeelC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. TaylorRF	.223	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
C. JulksLF	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.106	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BaldwinLF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TauchmanRF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	4	1	1	5	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BurkeSP	3.1	5	2	2	3	7	88
T. GilbertRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	0	26
B. HudsonRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	28
J. LeasureRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
W. GonzálezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	7	3	3	5	11	172

Team

CLE

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.