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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
ATH

ATH

50-66

1
2
WSH

WSH

45-68

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
14,980 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

ATH 1 · WSH 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0000010001
WSH0000010012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 29, 25sim 95
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 95
    116
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 94
    304
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 91
    155
    20(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 90
    280
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 90
    282
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesATH wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off Athletics, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Riley Adams

Riley Adams

C

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH50-66
1
2
WSH45-68
ATH50-66·WSH45-68
ATH

ATH

50-66

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-33000012
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33000012
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.735
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-33000010
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000001
G. UrshelaG. Urshela★3B
1-44010001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-33000011
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-11000001
Team4-32321411412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SpringsJ. Springs★SP
6.0111051
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0100020
M. KellyM. KellyRP
0.1211010
Team8.1422081
WSH

WSH

45-68

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.457
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-33000000
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-33000002
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000000
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000002
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
1-33111101
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33110001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
0-33000002
Team4-2828242108
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
4.1300160
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.1111221
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0000020
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.1000110
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000010
Team9.04114121

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Springs
    92 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      47%·90.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·79.5 mph·42% whiff
    • ST
      5%·73.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      4%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      32%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SV
      18%·81.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.5 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Kelly
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      69%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·91.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·97.9 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    88 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      32%·97.4 mph·28% whiff
    • KC
      30%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      15%·89.2 mph·56% whiff
    • FC
      7%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      68%·94.8 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      16%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·81.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • ST
      60%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.7 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

4

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

2

Current series

ATH wins series 2-1

Aug 5ATHATH16@WSHWSH7
Aug 6ATHATH1@WSHWSH2today
Aug 7ATHATH6@WSHWSH0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 5ATHATH16@WSHWSH7
Aug 6ATHATH1@WSHWSH2today
Aug 7ATHATH6@WSHWSH0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 9th Inning

ATHATH
T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Springs

J. Springs

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 1 H

WSHWSH
R. Adams

R. Adams

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

WSH beat ATH 2-1. Abrams's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

WSH vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 6th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 67% WP

Soderstrom · homered to right center (393 feet).

WSHBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 56% WP

Adams · homered to left (354 feet).

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 1-2
+28pp→ 100% WP

Abrams · singled to left, Hassell III scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0000010001
WSH0000010012

Period scoring

ATH won 0 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Soderstrom 1

Adams 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Abrams 1

ATH
WSH

Play-by-play · 521 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 2

  2. B9

    Abrams singled to left, Hassell III scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 2

    +28pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  7. B9

    Michael Kelly pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  9. B9

    Young struck out bunting foul.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

    −10pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Bunted Foul

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  15. B9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  16. B9

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Hassell III doubled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

    +16pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Robert Hassell III

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  22. B9

    Kelly relieved Newcomb

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Thomas in right field.

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  24. B9

    Bleday in center field.

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  26. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  27. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  28. T9

    Schuemann flied out to right.

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

    +4pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 1·WSH 1

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

1

Runs

2

4

Hits

4

0

Errors

2

7

TB

8

1

HR

1

4

BB

0

12

K

8

14

LOB

2

Player projections

WSH vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 3.4low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.1± 2.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    46.5%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.4%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872