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FINAL+1CIN
CIN

CIN

59-54

3
2
CHC

CHC

65-47

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
37,937 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 3 · CHC 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0100011003
CHC0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 97
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 97
    281
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    175
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 95
    180
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Tyler Stephenson

Tyler Stephenson

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN59-54
3
2
CHC65-47
CIN59-54·CHC65-47
CIN

CIN

59-54

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44011002
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33110012
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
0-44000002
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-33000001
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000000
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44111100
SPRINT26.735
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.278
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-33010001
M. AndujarM. AndujarDH
0-11000001
Team6-34343631111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. LodoloN. Lodolo★SP
1.2000010
N. MartinezN. MartinezSP
2.1222001
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
2.0000240
G. AshcraftG. AshcraftRP
1.0100000
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000010
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000020
Team9.0322281
CHC

CHC

65-47

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
0-44000000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33000011
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000001
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
0-11000000
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33110001
SPRINT27.662
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-33112101
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-11000000
M. BuschM. Busch1B
0-22000001
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-ArmstrongCF
0-11000001
Team3-2929232128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
2.0111131
B. BrownB. BrownRP
4.0211050
R. BrasierR. BrasierRP
0.2211000
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.1100010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000020
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0000000
Team9.06331111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • G. Ashcraft
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      33%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.8 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      50%·85.7 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • T. Rogers
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·76.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2today
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6

Season series

CHC lead series 4-3

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2today
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 8th Inning

CINCIN
T. Stephenson

T. Stephenson

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. Barlow

S. Barlow

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

CHCCHC
D. Swanson

D. Swanson

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H

How it ended

CIN beat CHC 3-2. De La Cruz's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+20pp→ 69% WP

Swanson · homered to left center (415 feet), Happ scored.

CINTop 8th Inning · 3-2
+26pp→ 66% WP

De La Cruz · popped out to shortstop.

CINBottom 8th Inning · 3-2
+22pp→ 74% WP

Hoerner · lined into double play, second to first, Crow-Armstrong doubled off first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0100011003
CHC0020000002

Period scoring

CIN won 3 · CHC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Stephenson 1

0
2

Inn 3

Swanson 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Cruz 1

1
0

Inn 7

Friedl 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
CHC

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  3. B9

    Castro grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  8. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  9. B9

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  10. B9

    Kelly struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

    −16pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  17. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  18. B9

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  19. B9

    Suzuki struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

    −10pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  27. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  28. B9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·CHC 2

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·CHC 2

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

11

TB

6

1

HR

1

1

BB

2

11

K

8

8

LOB

6

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    59.7%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.5%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872