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FINAL+5CHC
CIN

CIN

60-55

1
6
CHC

CHC

66-48

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
37,648 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CIN 1 · CHC 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000011
CHC001001226

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 23, 25sim 97
    72
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    175
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    170
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    181
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 94
    171
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Cincinnati Reds, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
TJ Friedl

TJ Friedl

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki

RF

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN60-55
1
6
CHC66-48
CIN60-55·CHC66-48
CIN

CIN

60-55

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT26.838
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-44000003
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-33000002
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
0-33000001
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
0-33000000
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
Team4-32321410012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AbbottA. Abbott★SP
6.2744232
L. MeyL. MeyRP
0.1100110
Y. ZuluetaY. ZuluetaRP
1.0322001
Team8.01166343
CHC

CHC

66-48

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44121010
SPRINT28.278
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
2-44120000
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
2-22122110
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44021000
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000002
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-44000001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-33111110
SPRINT27.662
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44110001
M. BuschM. Busch1B
0-11000000
Team11-34346116334
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HortonC. Horton★SP
5.2200060
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
0.1000010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000030
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000000
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0211020
Team9.04110120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    100 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      37%·93.1 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.7 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      16%·83.0 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Zulueta
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·87.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.5 mph·— whiff
  • L. Mey
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      69%·99.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·87.6 mph·33% whiff

CHC

  • C. Horton
    67 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.7 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      9%·83.7 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      64%·100.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      16%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    9 pitches·89% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Keller
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      38%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·92.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.5 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      25%·85.5 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

11

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6today

Season series

CHC lead series 5-4

May 23CHCCHC13@CINCIN6
May 24CHCCHC4@CINCIN6
May 25CHCCHC11@CINCIN8
May 30CINCIN6@CHCCHC2
May 31CINCIN0@CHCCHC2
Jun 1CINCIN3@CHCCHC7
Aug 5CINCIN3@CHCCHC2
Aug 6CINCIN5@CHCCHC1
Aug 6CINCIN1@CHCCHC6today
Sep 18CHCCHC0@CINCIN1
Sep 19CHCCHC4@CINCIN7
Sep 20CHCCHC3@CINCIN6
Sep 21CHCCHC0@CINCIN1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 6th Inning

CINCIN
T. Friedl

T. Friedl

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

C. Horton

C. Horton

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

CHC beat CIN 6-1.

Win probability

CHC vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 72% WP

Turner · singled to center, Hoerner to third.

CHCBottom 6th Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 87% WP

Suzuki · homered to left (379 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000011
CHC00100122—6

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · CHC won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Suzuki 1

0
2

Inn 7

Swanson 1

0
2

Inn 8

Happ 1

1

Inn 9

Hays 1

CIN
CHC

Play-by-play · 510 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  2. T9

    Lux struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  8. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Gavin Lux

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  9. T9

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  10. T9

    Hays grounded out to third, Friedl scored.

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  12. T9

    De La Cruz to second on wild pitch by Palencia, Friedl to third on wild pitch by Palencia.

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  13. T9

    De La Cruz to second on wild pitch by Palencia, Friedl to third on wild pitch by Palencia.

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  17. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Austin Hays

    · ·

    CIN 1·CHC 6

  18. T9

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  19. T9

    De La Cruz singled to left, Friedl to second.

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  24. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  25. T9

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  26. T9

    Steer struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·CHC 6

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

1

Runs

6

4

Hits

11

0

Errors

1

5

TB

21

0

HR

3

0

BB

3

12

K

4

8

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    4.7± 2.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    56.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.6%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.