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FINAL+5BOS
HOU

HOU

62-50

1
6
BOS

BOS

62-51

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,081 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

HOU 1 · BOS 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0001000001
BOS000600006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    171
    16(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    183
    2(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    175
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    198
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 93
    101
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Houston Astros, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

CF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU62-50
1
6
BOS62-51
HOU62-50·BOS62-51
HOU

HOU

62-50

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.867
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT25.818
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33000000
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-22000010
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000001
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-33000000
C. HummelC. HummelLF
0-11000001
Team3-3030131115
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
6.0765130
K. OrtK. OrtRP
1.0000120
N. HernandezN. HernandezRP
1.0100000
Team8.0865250
BOS

BOS

62-51

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT26.326
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-33000010
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-44110001
SPRINT27.457
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-33100012
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44121001
SPRINT27.969
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
3-33131000
SPRINT28.790
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-44110000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-22101000
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-22001000
Team8-2929685025
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
8.0311141
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.0000010
Team9.0311151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • F. Valdez
    94 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      52%·94.7 mph·5% whiff
    • CU
      26%·79.3 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      21%·90.3 mph·21% whiff
    • FF
      1%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Ort
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Hernandez
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      47%·81.9 mph·40% whiff

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    103 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.8 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      17%·81.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      5%·77.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Murphy
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      40%·74.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·94.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

8

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 3-0

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6today

Season series

BOS leads series 3-0

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6today
Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 4th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
C. Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat HOU 6-1.

Win probability

BOS vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 52% WP

Abreu · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Toro out at second.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 61% WP

Correa · homered to left center (418 feet).

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+16pp→ 69% WP

Story · singled to right, Anthony scored, Story to second, González to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0001000001
BOS00060000—6

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · BOS won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
6

Inn 4

Correa 1

Story 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
BOS

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  2. T9

    Correa grounded out to third.

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  7. T9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Carlos Correa

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  8. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  9. T9

    Hummel struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  13. T9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Cooper Hummel

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  14. T9

    Hummel hit for Sánchez

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  15. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  16. T9

    Altuve fouled out to third.

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  20. T9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  21. T9

    Murphy relieved Giolito

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  24. B8

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  25. B8

    Toro grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  28. B8

    Nick Hernandez pitches to Abraham Toro

    · ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  29. B8

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

  30. B8

    Rafaela singled to center.

    ·

    HOU 1·BOS 6

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

1

Runs

6

3

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

7

TB

9

1

HR

0

1

BB

2

5

K

5

4

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    57.6%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.2%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.