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FINAL+1CHC
CHC

CHC

62-43

5
4
CHW

CHW

38-68

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
38,036 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 5 · CHW 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC2000020105
CHW1000000304

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Andrew Benintendi

Andrew Benintendi

DH

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC62-43
5
4
CHW38-68
CHC62-43·CHW38-68
CHC

CHC

62-43

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-55000004
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
1-33110020
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-44100013
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
2-44022000
SPRINT29.294
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-33110011
SPRINT25.716
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33100011
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-44000003
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-33121011
SPRINT28.278
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT28.992
Team7-33335740613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. BrownB. Brown★RP
5.0311041
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000020
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
0.2200010
R. BrasierR. BrasierRP
1.0333001
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.1000010
Team9.0844082
CHW

CHW

38-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-44110003
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT2744
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
2-44224201
SPRINT26.632
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
E. QueroE. Quero★C
1-44010001
SPRINT24.12
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-44000001
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
0-33000000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44010000
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-11010000
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000000
K. TeelK. TeelC
0-11000000
Team8-3434484208
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. TaylorG. Taylor★RP
1.0222120
S. BurkeS. BurkeSP
4.2522180
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.1000110
M. VasilM. VasilRP
1.0010210
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0000110
Team9.07546130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • B. Brown
    57 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      49%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      42%·88.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      75%·91.9 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      25%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Brasier
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      42%·86.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      50%·100.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      17%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • CU
      25%·76.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.5 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·95.1 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      26%·79.8 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      25%·86.3 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Vasil
    34 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      65%·94.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      26%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      3%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Taylor
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      62%·98.6 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      24%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      14%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      37%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      26%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      42%·83.0 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      42%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

5

Runs

4

1

Errors

3

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Jul 25CHCCHC5@CHWCHW12
Jul 26CHCCHC6@CHWCHW1
Jul 27CHCCHC5@CHWCHW4today

Season series

CHC win series 5-1

May 16CHWCHW3@CHCCHC13
May 17CHWCHW3@CHCCHC7
May 18CHWCHW2@CHCCHC6
Jul 25CHCCHC5@CHWCHW12
Jul 26CHCCHC6@CHWCHW1
Jul 27CHCCHC5@CHWCHW4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 1st Inning

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

B. Brown

B. Brown

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H

CHWCHW
A. Benintendi

A. Benintendi

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Top reliever

4.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat CHW 5-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+14pp→ 79% WP

Crow-Armstrong · doubled to left, Suzuki scored and Tucker scored.

CHCTop 6th Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 81% WP

Hoerner · singled to center, Kelly scored.

CHWBottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+12pp→ 16% WP

Benintendi · homered to right (376 feet), Tauchman scored and Meidroth scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC2000020105
CHW1000000304

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · CHW won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Crow-Armstrong 2

Benintendi 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Hoerner 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
3

Inn 8

Shaw 1

Benintendi 3

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
CHW

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  3. B9

    Sosa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Robert Jr. out at second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

    −7pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  9. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    · ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  10. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  11. B9

    Robert Jr. hit by pitch.

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

    +4pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  13. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Luis Robert Jr.

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  14. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  15. B9

    Montgomery lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

    −6pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  19. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  20. B9

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  21. B9

    Quero grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

    −8pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  27. B9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Edgar Quero

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CHC 5·CHW 4

  30. T9

    ·

    CHC 5·CHW 4

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

4

7

Hits

8

1

Errors

3

11

TB

15

0

HR

2

6

BB

0

13

K

8

17

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHW vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Ian HappCHC
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Andrew BenintendiCHW
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    40.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.3%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.2%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    222
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    166
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    226
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 94
    252
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    223
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 15, 25sim 93
    226
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs