HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4BOS
KC

KC

56-58

2
6
BOS

BOS

64-51

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
37,013 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

KC

KC

league avg

BOS

BOS

.694

OPS

.717

.698

.316

OBP

.319

.314

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

4.03

4.44

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.91

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.29

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

KC 2 · BOS 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0001001002
BOS001002306

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Kansas City Royals, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. BregmanBOS+32.8pp
  2. 2W. AbreuBOS+30.6pp
  3. 3A. ZerpaKC−21.2pp

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. India2B
.2364000001
B. Witt Jr.SS
.2874110001
V. Pasquantino1B
.2614000000
M. Garcia3B
.3003121011
S. PerezC
.2534000000
R. GrichukRF
.2083011001
N. Loftin2B
.2073000002
L. MaileC
.3573010002
J. RaveRF
.1753000000
- M. YastrzemskiLF
.2311000000
- A. Frazier2B
.2311000000
Team33252018

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. BergertSP
5.22222285
A. ZerpaRP
0.13110013
J. SchreiberRP
0.23332024
D. Lynch IVRP
1.11000015
Team8.096642137

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranLF
.2644121000
A. Bregman3B
.2952200020
W. AbreuRF
.2524122001
T. StorySS
.2594023001
M. YoshidaDH
.2402010010
C. NarvaezC
.2484000000
A. Toro1B
.2564000000
R. Gonzalez1B
.3014120000
D. HamiltonSS
.1763100010
- C. RafaelaCF
.2661000000
Team32696042

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
G. CrochetSP
7.042218105
G. WeissertRP
1.00000017
J. HicksRP
1.01000017
Team9.052218139

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • R. Bergert
    85 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.0 mph·9% whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.5 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.1 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.0 mph·— whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      27%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      13%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.6 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    105 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      27%·90.0 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.3 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.2 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.8 mph·64% whiff
    • CH
      5%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Hicks
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      59%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·91.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

2

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Aug 4KCKC5@BOSBOS8
Aug 5KCKC2@BOSBOS6today
Aug 6KCKC7@BOSBOS3

Season series

BOS leads series 4-1

May 9BOSBOS1@KCKC2
May 10BOSBOS10@KCKC1
May 11BOSBOS3@KCKC1
Aug 4KCKC5@BOSBOS8
Aug 5KCKC2@BOSBOS6today
Aug 6KCKC7@BOSBOS3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 6th Inning

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

R. Bergert

R. Bergert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat KC 6-2. Story's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

BOS vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSBottom 6th Inning · 1-3
+20pp→ 89% WP

Story · singled to center, Bregman scored and Abreu scored.

KCTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+11pp→ 24% WP

Grichuk · doubled to center, Garcia scored.

BOSBottom 7th Inning · 2-5
+9pp→ 96% WP

Abreu · singled to right, Duran scored and Hamilton scored, Bregman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0001001002
BOS00100230—6

Period scoring

KC won 1 · BOS won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Duran 1

1
0

Inn 4

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Story 2

1
3

Inn 7

Grichuk 1

Abreu 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
BOS

Play-by-play · 531 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  2. T9

    Frazier grounded out to second.

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  8. T9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Adam Frazier

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  9. T9

    Frazier hit for Loftin

    ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  10. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  11. T9

    Yastrzemski fouled out to third.

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

    +0.8pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  17. T9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  18. T9

    Yastrzemski hit for Grichuk

    ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  19. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  20. T9

    Perez grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

    +1pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  22. T9

    Garcia to second on wild pitch by Hicks.

    ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  23. T9

    Garcia to second on wild pitch by Hicks.

    ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  28. T9

    Jordan Hicks pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  29. T9

    ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

  30. T9

    Garcia singled to left.

    ·

    KC 2·BOS 6

    −1pp

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

9

TB

11

0

HR

0

1

BB

4

8

K

2

11

LOB

8

Player projections

BOS vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.0± 3.9low
  • Ranger SuarezBOS
    5.7± 3.7low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.4± 2.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 1.3high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Kameron MisnerKC
    1.3± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    3.0± 3.1high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    2.1± 2.4high
  • Jac CaglianoneKC
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Kameron MisnerKC
    1.0± 1.4low
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.9± 1.1high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jake BennettBOS
    3.0± 2.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.1%

    P(BOS win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.1%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.