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FINAL+1BOS
MIA

MIA

58-64

1
2
BOS

BOS

67-56

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
36,854 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIA 1 · BOS 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0010000001
BOS0000010012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox held off Miami Marlins, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Trevor Story

Trevor Story

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA58-64
1
2
BOS67-56
MIA58-64·BOS67-56
MIA

MIA

58-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
2-33021010
SPRINT2622
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-44020001
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT28.381
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.765
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
1-44010001
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33000001
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-44010001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja3B
0-11000000
Team9-3535191016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
6.0211170
A. BenderA. BenderRP
1.0000020
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0000000
Team8.0322390
BOS

BOS

67-56

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-22200022
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33011010
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-33000000
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-44021001
SPRINT27.969
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000001
SPRINT2872
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-33000003
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
0-33000000
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33000002
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000000
Team3-2727232039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GiolitoL. Giolito★SP
6.1711150
J. WilsonJ. WilsonRP
1.1100000
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
0.1100000
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.0911160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    86 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      30%·90.4 mph·16% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·88.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      13%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      46%·88.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Bender
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      58%·83.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Simpson
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      42%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      25%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      50%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·88.7 mph·— whiff

BOS

  • L. Giolito
    92 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·93.3 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      16%·81.1 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      2%·79.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      45%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wilson
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      75%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Aug 15MIAMIA1@BOSBOS2today
Aug 16MIAMIA5@BOSBOS7
Aug 17MIAMIA5@BOSBOS3

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Aug 15MIAMIA1@BOSBOS2today
Aug 16MIAMIA5@BOSBOS7
Aug 17MIAMIA5@BOSBOS3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 6th Inning

MIAMIA
K. Stowers

K. Stowers

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
T. Story

T. Story

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Giolito

L. Giolito

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat MIA 2-1. Bregman's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

BOS vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 45% WP

Stowers · doubled to center, Edwards scored.

MIATop 6th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 61% WP

Hicks · doubled to center.

BOSBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+20pp→ 68% WP

Bregman · doubled to right, Anthony scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0010000001
BOS0000010012

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · BOS won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Stowers 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Story 1

MIA
BOS

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 2

  2. B9

    Story singled to right, Anthony scored, Duran to second, Bregman to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 2

    +6pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  5. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Trevor Story

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Faucher relieved Simpson

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  8. B9

    Duran hit by pitch, Bregman to second, Anthony to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

    +10pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  11. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  12. B9

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  13. B9

    Bregman walked, Anthony to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

    +6pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  19. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Alex Bregman

    · ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  20. B9

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  21. B9

    Anthony walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

    +10pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  27. B9

    Josh Simpson pitches to Roman Anthony

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  28. B9

    Simpson relieved Bachar

    ·

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  29. B9

    Sanoja at third base.

    MIA 1·BOS 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIA 1·BOS 1

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

1

Runs

2

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

14

TB

4

0

HR

0

1

BB

3

6

K

9

14

LOB

4

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BOS vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    59.9%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.3%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.5%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    173
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    112
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 95
    183
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    210
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    14
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 94
    72
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs