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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PIT
TOR

TOR

74-54

1
2
PIT

PIT

54-74

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
14,019 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TOR 1 · PIT 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR1000000001
PIT200000002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 18, 25sim 95
    142
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    162
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 92
    224
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 92
    164
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 91
    147
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 90
    121
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Toronto Blue Jays, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR74-54
1
2
PIT54-74
TOR74-54·PIT54-74
TOR

TOR

74-54

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-33111111
SPRINT25.920
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-44000000
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.716
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000002
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-44000000
SPRINT26.838
T. FranceT. France★1B
0-22000000
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-33000002
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-22000000
Team3-2929131118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
5.26222100
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.1000010
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2200100
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.1000110
Team8.08224120
PIT

PIT

54-74

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. SimonR. Simon★2B
1-44010002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-22110021
SPRINT27.969
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
2-44022001
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
0-44000003
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-33010012
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-33000000
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
1-33010001
Team8-30302820412
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
5.0211161
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
2.0100000
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000010
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000010
Team9.0311181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • C. Bassitt
    107 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      41%·92.4 mph·4% whiff
    • CU
      17%·72.0 mph·44% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.6 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      9%·73.1 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      58%·97.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      16%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Little
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      72%·93.0 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      28%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      70%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      30%·82.4 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    75 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.9 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      36%·87.0 mph·45% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·89.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      20%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      86%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • FC
      25%·91.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

8

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 18TORTOR2@PITPIT5
Aug 19TORTOR7@PITPIT3
Aug 20TORTOR1@PITPIT2today

Season series

PIT wins series 2-1

Aug 18TORTOR2@PITPIT5
Aug 19TORTOR7@PITPIT3
Aug 20TORTOR1@PITPIT2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.2 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat TOR 2-1. Pham's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

PIT vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+18pp→ 47% WP

Pham · doubled to left, Horwitz scored and Reynolds scored.

PITBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 67% WP

Pham · struck out swinging.

TORBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 27% WP

N. Gonzales · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Simon out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR1000000001
PIT20000000—2

Period scoring

TOR won 0 · PIT won 1

1
2

Inn 1

Pham 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
PIT

Play-by-play · 519 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  2. T9

    Varsho flied out to center.

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  4. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Daulton Varsho

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  5. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  6. T9

    Kirk flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

    +7pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  11. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  12. T9

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  13. T9

    Bichette struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

    +5pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  17. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  18. T9

    Santana relieved Mattson

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  21. B8

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  22. B8

    Davis grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Triolo out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  23. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  24. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  25. B8

    Seranthony Dominguez pitches to Henry Davis

    · ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  26. B8

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  27. B8

    Triolo walked.

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

    +2pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 1·PIT 2

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

1

Runs

2

3

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

7

TB

10

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

8

K

12

8

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 10 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

PIT vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.7± 0.8high
  • Oneil CruzPIT
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    40.8%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.2%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.3%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.